Happy almost 2009, Stumblers. Hope everyone is getting into something fun tonight…

The NFL coaching carousel is in full swing. There are too many open jobs, not enough qualified replacements. NFL owners do this every freaking year. Here’s a look at who might be stepping in to replace some of the departed. (CBS Sportsline)

John Daly banned from the PGA for 6 months. What a waste of talent. (ESPN)

This is just turrible. (TMZ)

Michael Lewis continues to chronicle of Ole Miss LT Michael Oher, who has overcome incredible odds and become a top flight NFL prospect. (NYT)

Finally, the New York Times has a handy compilation of some of the web’s most useful links. (NYT)

Sports Marketplace – NCAA Bowl Games (3)

Recapping Bowl Games Week 2

This is our first year providing the NCAA Football Marketwatch, and we finished the regular season just below .500. We got off to a good start in the bowl games with a 3-0 first week, which we followed up with a 2-1 record in our second set of games. Wisconsin was embarrassed by Florida State to give us our first loss of the bowl season. N.C. State almost blew it late, but lost by six to finish within the seven-point spread for another win. Oregon won outright over Oklahoma State for our second win of the week.

If you enjoy the insights this column provides, please be sure to visit SportsInsights.com. We are the leader in sports betting information and statistics.

Overall = 25-23-3 = 52.1%

NCAA Bowl Games (3)

We are splitting the Bowl Season into three NCAA Marketwatches. The first featured games from the first full week of bowl games. The second came from the remaining games in 2008, and this final set features games after the New Year. The third set of bowl games sees the big-time teams and BCS bowls taking place. Things get kicked off with nine games in the first two days, including the granddaddy of bowl games the Rose Bowl on January 1st. Also on the first we get a showdown between two of the nation’s top tailbacks in the Capital One Bowl, with Georgia’s Knowshown Moreno going head-to-head with Michigan State’s Javon Ringer. Of course the big one takes place on January 8th in the BCS Championship Game between Florida and Oklahoma. 

Warning to all new readers of the NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch column: in order to follow our selections, you’ll need ice running through your veins. Be prepared to take up meditation or acupuncture to calm the nerves. The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too go to be true, there is a reason. The underlining theme every week is line value. You’ll consistently need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.

It’s the final set of games until next fall, so we’re expecting lots of action on all the remaining games, especially the BCS Bowls. Visit   SportsInsights.com to view wagering statistics on NCAA games from multiple online sportsbooks. Here is a trio of line value games we are keying on.

NCAA Sports MarketWatch Bowl Games (3) – Games to Watch

Michigan State vs Georgia (1/1 1P)

Michigan State doesn’t want the bad taste from their regular season finale loss to Penn State to linger in their mouth all off-season. The Spartans offensive star feels like it is his role to make that happen. Tailback Javon Ringer rushed for 1,590 yards on the season, but only 42 yards against the Nittany Lions with the Big Ten title on the line. The MSU passing attack has had problems keeping defenses honest this season, as quarterback Brian Hoyer barely completed 50% of his passes on the season. The Spartans will get their best wideout Mark Dell back after the sophomore missed time at the end of the season. Michigan State’s defense has had problems stopping elite running backs this season, and that could be a problem in the Capital One Bowl as they face Georgia’s Knowshown Moreno.

When the season kicked off, Georgia was hoping to appear in Florida for a January bowl game. The Capital One Bowl wasn’t what they had in mind when they were ranked No. 1 in the pre-season. They are also coming off a disappointing 45-42 loss to in-state rival Georgia Tech, in which they allowed 409 rushing yards. The Bulldogs defense had been solid against the run, as they finished the season allowing an average of 129.9 yards per game including the effort against the Yellow Jackets. The offense features one of the most talented groups of position players in the country in quarterback Matthew Stafford, tailback Knowshown Moreno, and wide receiver A.J. Green. The Bulldogs are averaging 32.1 points per game.

The Bulldogs opened as 5.5-point favorites at 5Dimes and many other books tracked by Sports Insights. They are receiving huge backing with 81% of the public spread bets. That huge backing mage the line jump to Georgia -8 a few days later. Since then the line has dipped back down to Georgia -7.5 at 5Dimes. It also saw this later dip and many other books. That triggered a few Smart Money plays on the Spartans, including at BetOnline (37-23, +10.22 units) and 5Dimes (85-69, +7.71 units). We’re following the Smart Money and looking for some favorable underdog lines like the Michigan State +8.5 at Bodog.

Michigan State +8.5 (Bodog)

Penn State vs Southern Cal (1/1 5P)

Penn State comes into the Rose Bowl as Big Ten Champions in what many people consider a down year for the conference. That doesn’t mean Penn State isn’t one of the top teams in the country, as they dominate on both sides of the ball. The rushing attack is led by sophomore tailback Evan Royster, who rushed for over 1,200 yards on the season. Quarterback Daryll Clark completed over 60% of his passes while throwing to a talented trio of senior wide receivers. Deon Butler, Derrick Williams and Jordan Norwood combined to make 121 receptions. The Nittany Lions defense is also strong, allowing only 12.4 points per game, while giving up an average of 263.9 yards.

As good as Penn State is, Southern Cal is slightly better on the stat sheet. The Trojans rank first nationally in four defensive categories, including scoring defense (7.8 points per game) and total defense (206.1 yards per game). The Trojans utilize a traditional pro-style offense led by quarterback Mark Sanchez, who threw for 30 touchdowns against 10 interceptions. USC uses a trio of running backs to complement Sanchez, highlighted by sophomore Joe McKnight. The Trojans will be without versatile fullback Stanley Havili, and offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian left before The Rose Bowl to take the head coach position at the University of Washington.

Southern Cal opened as double-digit favorites at most books tracked by Sports Insights, including USC -10.5 at Pinnacle. The Trojans are receiving almost two-thirds of the public spread bets at 64%. Despite this backing, the line has moved in the other direction to USC -8 at Pinnacle. There is still some variation in the line across the marketplace, ranging from an 8-point spread to a 10-point spread. Leading up to the game a Steam Move was triggered at Bet Jamaica (125-100, +13.3 units) on the Nittany Lions. We think these two teams are pretty evenly matched, so we think getting either team with 10 points is the way to go. We’ll take Joe Pa and Penn State with the points.

Penn State +10 (Bodog)

Utah vs Alabama (1/2 8:15P)

Utah comes into the Sugar Bowl with the nation’s longest active winning streak at 13 games. They have that designation thanks to Alabama’s loss in the SEC Championship Game, which ended the Crimson Tide’s own 13-game winning streak. The Utes are the first non-BCS conference school to reach two BCS bowls, having won the 2005 Fiesta Bowl against Pittsburgh. That win is part of a seven-game bowl winning streak for Utah. Quarterback Brian Johnson spread the ball around to his receivers while throwing for 24 touchdowns on the season; five receivers caught at least 23 passes and 3 touchdowns. The Utes defense is allowing only 104.8 yards rushing per game.

Alabama came within one quarter of playing in the BCS Championship Game, but they were handed their first loss after giving up two fourth-quarter touchdowns to Florida in the SEC Championship Game. The Crimson Tide are lead by a strong rushing attack, which averages 196.5 yards per game, and an efficient passing attack. That combination lives on ball control, but they also average 31 points per game. Alabama can play against any type of offense, as it has utilized a 3-4 base defense, but also used nickel, dime, and zone blitz packages much of the year. The Tide defense allowed an average of 78.8 rushing yards per game, while giving up a total of 19 touchdowns in 13 games.

It’s no surprise that Alabama opened as double-digit favorites against the Mountain West Champions, and it’s not surprising they are receiving the majority of bets from the public. The Crimson Tide are receiving 77% of the public spread bets. Despite this overwhelming majority of support, the line has moved from an opening at Pinnacle of Alabama -11 to -9. The line has seem quite a bit of fluctuation between those numbers, and the game has received over 15 Betting System triggers from Sports Insights. All except one are on Utah, including Smart Money plays at Bodog (17-8, +7.40 units) and BetOnline (37-23, +10.22) and a Steam Move at Bet Jamaica (125-100, +13.3). We’re not sure if the Utes can finish off another undefeated season against ‘Bama, but we think they can stay within single digits. We’re taking Utah with the points.

Utah +10 (BetPhoenix)

So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NCAA Football Bowls (3).

Games to Watch (25-23-3)
Michigan State +8.5 (Bodog)
Penn State +10 (Bodog)
Utah +10 (BetPhoenix)

It should be another exciting week for NCAA Football. Keep Sports Marketplace Games to Watch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. Also check out our new feature Campus Reports for NCAA Football information you won’t find anywhere else. We’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch.

Enjoy the games!

Editor’s Note: The above post was written by Mike Norris at SportsInsights. Every week SportsInsights speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding giving sports fans unprecedented insight into the NCAA Football point-spread market. Check out SportsInsights at http://SportsInsights.com.

Sports Marketplace – NCAA Bowl Games (2)

Recapping Bowl Games Week 1

This is our first year providing the NCAA Football Marketwatch, and we finished the regular season just below .500. The Bowl Season is off to a good start at 2-0 with a game still pending. Arizona covered the 3-point spread with a 10-point win over BYU to kick off our bowl picks. Southern Miss scored an outright win over Troy in overtime to give us the 2-0 start. We have Florida Atlantic getting six points against Central Michigan on Friday, but they are currently receiving seven points across the marketplace.

If you enjoy the insights this column provides, please be sure to visit SportsInsights.com. We are the leader in sports betting information and statistics.

Overall = 22-22-3 = 50.0% (1 game pending)

NCAA Bowl Games (2)

We are splitting the Bowl Season into three NCAA Marketwatches. The first featured games from the first full week of bowl games. The second is coming from the remaining games in 2008, and the final will feature games after the New Year. The second set of bowl games sees some traditional powerhouses and some up-and-coming teams in action. Some of the interesting match ups include West Virginia-North Carolina, Wisconsin-Florida State, Miami (FL)-California, Oregon-Oklahoma State, and LSU-Georgia Tech. The biggest spread in this set of games sees Missouri as 13-point favorites over Northwestern.

Warning to all new readers of the NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch column: in order to follow our selections, you’ll need ice running through your veins. Be prepared to take up meditation or acupuncture to calm the nerves. The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too go to be true, there is a reason. The underlining theme every week is line value. You’ll consistently need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.

With a light schedule on the final weekend before bowl games, we’re expecting heavy action on the majority of games on the board. Visit SportsInsights.com to view wagering statistics on NCAA games from multiple online sportsbooks. Here is a trio of line value games we are keying on.

NCAA Sports MarketWatch Bowl Games (2) – Games to Watch

Wisconsin vs Florida State (12/27 4:30P)

Wisconsin comes into the Champs Sports Bowl in Orlando making its fifth-consecutive trip to Florida

for bowl season. The Badgers had higher hopes coming into 2008, and they looked to be reaching those expectations when they moved up to ninth in the polls. They then lost four-straight and five of six games in the middle of their season to fall completely out of the rankings. The Badgers finished the season with a three-game win streak to qualify for bowl contention. Wisconsin utilizes a veteran offensive line and a pair of stud tailbacks in P.J. Hill and John Clay to power their offense (the Badgers rank 14th nationally in rushing offense with 212.0 ypg). Junior quarterback Dustin Sherer improved down the stretch after taking over as starter for the last six games of the season, as he threw for 450 yards during the Badgers’ final two games. Wisconsin’s defense has been up-and-down this season, but they still boast a solid unit against the run. They rank 43rd nationally allowing 133.3 yards per game.

Florida State is making its 27th-consecutive bowl appearance, which is now the nation’s longest streak with Michigan failing to qualify. The Seminoles come in having lost three of their last five games behind an offense that struggled. FSU averaged 216 rush yards per game during the first six games, but that average fell to below 150 yards for the final six. Quarterback Chistian Ponder also struggled down the stretch finishing with more interceptions (13) than touchdowns (12), and he was benched in the regular season finale against Florida. The Seminoles defense relies on speed and athleticism along the front seven to get in the backfield and disrupt opposing offenses. Florida State is holding opponents to 126.8 rushing yards per game, but they allowed Florida to rush for 317 yards in their regular season finale.

Florida State opened as a 5.5-point favorite at 5Dimes. Since then, the line has fluctuated between FSU -4.5 and -6. The public is solidly behind the Seminoles, with them receiving 78% of spread bets and 78% of parlay bets. The combination of movement and percentages triggered Smart Money plays at multiple books, all with records of at least .500. Among the books triggering plays for Wisconsin were Bodog (17-7, +8.40 units), BetOnline (35-22, +9.4), and 5Dimes (83-66, +8.86). We’ll follow the sharps and take the power running game of Wisconsin.

Wisconsin +6 (Bodog)

N.C. State vs Rutgers (12/29 3P)

North Carolina State comes into the Papajohns.com Bowl having won four straight, including two against nationally-ranked opponents. The Wolfpack surged behind the strong late-season play of quarterback Russell Wilson, who was named ACC rookie of the year and a first-team conference selection. After winning a deep quarterback battle, Wilson finished the season having thrown for 1,769 yards and 16 touchdowns with only one interception in 252 attempts. He also rushed for 342 yards and four scores. Wilson enjoys throwing deep to wide receiver Owen Spencer and short to tight end

Anthony Hill. NCSU’s defense improved during the four-game winning streak, as they allowed more than 20 points only once during that stretch. The month between the Wolfpack’s season finale and bowl game should be a huge help as they will be able to heal some key injuries.

NCSU may be the ACC’s hottest team heading into Bowl Season, but Rutgers was even hotter coming out of the Big East. The Scarlet Knights won their final six behind a streaking offense led by its passing attack. Quarterback Mike Teel closed his senior season on a high note throwing to the talented trio of wide receivers Kenny Britt, Tiquan Underwood, and Tim Brown. Rutgers running attack utilizes another trio of players, but coach Greg Schiano tends to play the hot hand instead of a rotation. The Scarlet Knights defense has played well all season with the exception of a 44-12 loss against another ACC foe, North Carolina.

Rutgers opened as 6.5-point favorites at Pinnacle, and they have been as heavy as 9.5-point favorites during the time leading up to the game. The public was backing Rutgers earlier in the week, but the percentages have evened out as each team is currently receiving 50% of the public spread bets. The Scarlet Knights are receiving slightly stronger backing in the parlay category with 60% of the public’s bets. Despite the line fluctuation there haven’t been many Betting System plays triggered for either team. In this battle of two surging teams, we like the one receiving a touchdown in the spread.

N.C. State +7

Oregon vs Oklahoma State (12/30 8PM)

Oregon closed the regular season with a huge 65-38 win that knocked rival Oregon State out of a Rose Bowl berth. The Ducks come into the Holiday Bowl with a 9-3 record, and they will be seeking their

second 10-win season in the past seven. Quarterback Jeremiah Masoli took over behind center down the stretch and finished the regular season with 1,487 yards, 12 touchdowns and four interceptions. The strength of the Oregon offense is on the ground with tailbacks Jeremiah Johnson (1,082 yards, 12 TD) and LeGarrette Blount (928 yards, 16 TD) leading the nation’s fourth-ranked rushing attack. The Ducks finished with an average of 41.9 points per game, which was seventh in the nation. The Ducks’ main weakness is its passing defense, which ranked 108th in the nation.

Oklahoma State is seeking to tie a school record with 10 wins on the season, as head coach Mike Gundy returns to a special place from his past. In the Cowboys’ only other Holiday Bowl appearance, Gundy completied 20 of 24 passes for 315 yards and two touchdowns in OSU’s 62-14 victory over Wyoming in 1988. The Cowboys come into the bowl ranked seventh nationally in total yards, seventh in rushing offense, and eighth in scoring offense. The trio of quarterback Zac Robinson, tailback Kendall Hunter, and wide receiver Dez Bryant has made the Cowboys’ spread offense very dangerous. OSU had trouble putting pressure on opposing quarterbacks (13 sacks on the season), which is one reason they rank 110th nationally against the pass.

The Holiday Bowl should be an offensive shootout, and defense will probably decide the victor. Both teams rely on rushing attacks, so the key could be stopping the run. Oklahoma State opened as a 3.5-point favorite at 5Dimes, and the line saw some movement to OSU -4 early. Since then, we have seen movement in the opposite direction, despite the Cowboys receiving 60% of spread bets and 73% of parlay bets. This caused a few Smart Money plays to be triggered, including at 5Dimes (83-66, +8.86) and The Pig (127-111, +3.30). We’ll follow the sharps and take the Ducks getting a field goal.

Oregon +3

So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NCAA Football Week 15.

Games to Watch (22-22-3) (1 game pending)
Wisconsin +6 (Bodog)
N.C. State +7
Oregon +3
Games to Watch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. Also check out our new feature Campus Reports for NCAA Football information you won’t find anywhere else. We’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch.

Enjoy the games!

Editor’s Note: The above post was written by Mike Norris at SportsInsights. Every week SportsInsights speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding giving sports fans unprecedented insight into the NCAA Football point-spread market. Check out SportsInsights at http://SportsInsights.com.

Welcome to this week’s edition of the Sports MarketWatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports MarketWatch!

Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Dan takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.

Sports MarketWatch – NFL Week 17

Recapping Last Week

Christmas started early in NFL Week 15 and the party continued right on through to NFL Week 16. All sportsbooks reported sizeable profits in Week 16 with most sportsbooks retaining anywhere between 3%-6%of their handle. The last three weeks of the NFL season always have their share of surprises and upsets. This year has been no different. Pretty much every single big game went the way of the sportsbooks. Tennessee winning big at home against Pittsburgh, the New York Jets losing to lowly Seattle and Oakland (a 7pt underdog) winning by 11pts over Houston were all huge games for the sportsbooks.

SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the Public got hammered, going 1-7, making the Public 52-73 = 41.6% for the season. SportsInsights.com Games to Watch analysis continued its positive momentum, going 2-1, making it 26-21-2 = 55.3% for the season. Not bad for a free weekly column; imagine the money you’d have won by using our Premium Pro membership! If you have enjoyed the insights this column provides, please be sure to visit SportsInsights.com and sign up for a Premium Pro Membership. Your bankroll will thank you! Happy holidays!

2005 Games to Watch: 33-25 = 56.9%
2006 Games to Watch: 31-18 = 63.3%
2007 Games to Watch: 25-19 = 56.8%
2008 Games to Watch: 26-21 = 55.3%

NFL WEEK 17
This time of year is tough for the oddsmakers, as teams that can’t improve their playoff position look to sit starters. In addition, there are some horrible and meaningless match-ups. We anticipate that Green Bay, Pittsburgh, and New England will be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Visit SportsInsights.com to view live wagering statistics from seven online sportsbooks.

NFL Week 17 Sports MarketWatch – Games to Watch (26-21 = 55.3%)

Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets

Time to “buy low and sell high.” A few weeks ago, some people were picking the Jets to be the AFC representative in the Superbowl. Since the Jets’ big win at Tennessee five games ago, the Jets have limped to a 1-3 record. Meanwhile, the Miami Dolphins have put together a four-game winning streak and are tied with New England atop the AFC East, one game ahead of the Jets. The Jets looked bad last week against the lowly Seahawks while the Dolphins scored 38 points in defeating KC. Time to buy the Jets at a recent “low” and sell the Dolphins at a “peak.”

The “sharps” also feel that there is good value on the New York Jets. The line opened at CRIS at Jets -2.5. The majority of bets — especially teasers and parlays — are on Miami, but the line has ticked up to the “key three number.” There are still some 2.5’s available that we would grab ASAP.

Many of the Dolphins’ wins this year have been by just a few points. They beat the teams they should — but don’t seem to be as good as their 10-5 record. On the other hand, the Jets have been underperforming lately. Overall, we believe that the Jets are a better team, so we like giving less than a FG at home.

New York Jets -2.5 -110 BetUS

More picks are coming soon!

Editor’s Note: The above was written by Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.Every week SportsInsights speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding giving sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL Football point-spread market. Check out SportsInsights at http://SportsInsights.com.

Big time weekend in sports, highlighted by significant NFL action. We’re

heavy on football today…

Ex-Bengal facing significant post career injury issues (Money Players)

Shaun Ellis will not take guff from opposing fans! (Kissing Suzy Kolber)

The thought of Brady Quinn getting jacked in the face by a teammate warms the heart. Happy holidays to all… (The Big Lead)

Life in the NFL isn’t easy. Sometimes you get punched in the face by a ref.

Poor Lions fans. Already saddled with the dubious distinction of being the first team in NFL history to go 0-15, they get this news. If the Ford family wants to run a pillar of American industry into the ground, so be it, but enough with the Lions! (MLive.com)

Jason Elam, author? Tom Clancy he is not, but the descriptions of his books are unintentional comedy gold. (Sports by Brooks)

Titans taking issue with an unfortunate towel. Playoff motivation for the Steelers? (Kissing Suzy Kolber)

NFL Playoff Picture. Man, that 3 seed in the AFC is going to be a tough out!

Top 100 WAGS of 2008. Do yourself a favor, and spend some time clicking around here. Slightly NSFW, but worth it. (on205th)

Why are they still letting Evander box? It’s sad and dangerous at this point.

Some are as low as $10! I guess one of the few upsides of a recession…

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• Stewart Mandel: Bowl Projections
• BCS championship game to be available live in 3-D
• Oklahoma RB Murray to Miss Title Game With Injury
• Every Bowl Game in Ten Words
• Big Ten Predictions for 2008: In-Depth Records and Bowl Matchups

Braves now refuse to do business with the Wasserman Agency.

The Pigeon deserved it.

Donald Brashear vs Riley Cote (hockey fight video).

Matt Bradley vs. Josh Gratton (hockey fight video).

Eddy Curry “forgot” to

Man beats his wife of the smell of his [redacted].

LenDale White dreams about food & diamonds, and about stealing touchdowns

from Chris Johnson.

Toskala gets bobinjured.

LeBron to resign this summer?

The Dallas Cowboys could use some rush defense PROTIPS.

Big ol bowl previews from Is Not a Waste Land. Part 1 | Part 2

Nets fans chant “Thank You Cuban”. The Kidd for Harris swapped will go down as one of the worst NBA trades ever.

Deadspin dissects internet rumors featuring everyone’s favorite: Erin Andrews.

And a special Merry Christmas treat: 50 Women Who Wowed 2008.

Welcome to this week’s edition  of the Sports MarketWatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports MarketWatch!

Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Dan takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.

Sports MarketWatch – NFL Week 16

Recapping Last Week

Christmas came early for the sportsbooks in NFL Week 15.  All sportsbooks reported a profitable Sunday retaining anywhere between 3%-6%of their handle.  Pretty much every single big game except New England vs. Oakland went the way of the sportsbooks.  Houston stunning Tennessee and Cincy pounding Washington were the huge 1pm games for the sportsbooks.

SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the Public got hammered, going 1-6, making the Public 51-66 = 43.5% for the season.  SportsInsights.com Games to Watch analysis continued its positive momentum, going 2-0-1,making it 24-20-2 = 54.5% for the season.  Let’s see what the Sports Marketplace has in store for us this week — as we hope to continue our forward progress.  Happy holidays!

View Last Week’s Column:
http://www.sportsinsights.com/sportsmarketwatch/sportsmarketwatch.aspx

NFL WEEK 16
We anticipate that Pittsburgh, Philly, New Orleans and Houston will be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week.  Visit SportsInsights.com to view live wagering statistics from seven online sportsbooks.

NFL Week 16 Sports MarketWatch – Games to Watch (24-20 = 54.5%)

Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs

The Miami Dolphins stay relatively close to the elite NFL teams and beat the teams they “should.”  What a turnaround from a year ago!  The Dolphins continue to surprise most people and win.  Or is it a surprise??!  This week, a big 67% of all bets (including teasers and parlays) are taking the Dolphins over the KC Chiefs.  It looks like the Public is jumping on the Dolphins’ bandwagon.  In addition, the “betting Public” typically overvalues the motivational value of teams positioning themselves for the playoffs.

Although the Dolphins have been winning, a quick scan shows that three of their more recent wins have been by a total of 11 points.  One of our offshore contacts, a sportsbook risk manager, told us that some “early big money” on the Chiefs drove the line down.  Even with an overwhelming number of bets landing on the Dolphins, the line has moved from KC +4 down to KC +3.5.  That is a huge move off of the “key 4″ number.  SportsInsights’ (SIs) analytical tools confirm the existence of “Smart Money” moving the line in the direction opposite of the Public’s betting.  Let’s take the side of “Smart money” and “Bet Against the Public” on the home dog.

Years ago, SIs published the results of academic research over a long 20-year period that showed a bias for home underdogs to cover the spread — late in the NFL season — and into the playoffs.  SportsInsights’ research shows that this bias continues to work.  You can still grab KC +4 at SIA.  Most books have moved down to +3.5 so grab the +4 soon.

Kansas City Chiefs +4 SIA

New York Jets vs Seattle Seahawks

A few weeks ago, the Jets were touted as one of the best of the AFC.  That “aura or shine” is still on the Jets as they are tied for first place in the AFC East at 9-5.  The Jets play the lowly 3-11 Seattle Seahawks this game, in what looks like an “easy” game for a potential playoff-bound team.  Or is it such an easy pick?  The “Big Money” doesn’t think so.

Early “Sharp money” pushed the line towards the Seahawks, even though a big 70% of bets are landing on the visiting favorite Jets.  The Jets opened as 5.5 point favorites at CRIS but the line has moved down to 4 at most books.  The “Smart money” has seen a Jets team struggle at 3-2 over their last five games as they drive towards the playoffs.  This is NOT the performance you would expect to see from an elite NFL team.  We’ll “Bet Against the Public” and join the “Big Money.”  Bodog and SIA still have Seattle +4.5.

Seattle Seahawks +4.5  SIA

Houston Texans vs Oakland Raiders

The Houston Texans have been playing great football, putting together a four-game winning streak, capped by its huge win against Tennessee last week.  The “hot money” is all over Houston as they take slim playoff aspirations to Oakland against the lowly 3-11 Raiders.

We like the Raiders at home, plus the touchdown for several reasons.

• The Raiders are a big home dog, late in the season.
• Any playoff hopes that Houston may have are overvalued by the Public.
• The Public loves Houston in this game, to the tune of almost 90%.  Fade the Public.
• CRIS opened at Oakland +7.5 but the current line everywhere is +7, even with most bets on Houston.  Go with “Smart money.”
• Oakland has lost three games in a row, the last two by a combined 83-33.  Ouch.  Buy low!
• Houston has reeled off four wins in a row.  Sell high!

You should be able to grab Oakland +7 at low vig right now.  The line may hop back up to +7.5 if you wait closer to game-time as the Public continues to pound Houston.

Oakland Raiders +7

So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch:

Games to Watch (24-20 = 54.5%)
Kansas City Chiefs +4 SIA
Seattle Seahawks +4.5 SIA
Oakland Raiders +7

It should be another exciting NFL Weekend.  Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.  I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports MarketWatch.

Enjoy the games!

Editor’s Note: The above was written by Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.Every week SportsInsights speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding giving sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL Football point-spread market. Check out SportsInsights at http://SportsInsights.com.