Editor’s Note: The below was written by Chris at SportsInsights. Every week SportsInsights speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sports books about which teams the Public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding giving sports fans unprecedented insight into the NBA point-spread market. Check out SportsInsights at http://SportsInsights.com.

Each week, we’re going to take a look at a few teams around The Association that we think deserve extra consideration. We will not be giving picks; however, we believe this information can help the prudent bettor looking for that extra bit of information to help them make a more informed decision on upcoming games. We welcome your feedback – please direct any comments to chris@sportsinsights.com. Also, you can comment or subscribe to our blog here. For previous articles, please visit our archive.

L.A. Clippers

The L.A. Clippers have been the laughing stock of the NBA for quite some time now, and this year has been no different. Sporting one of the worst records in the league (and a below .500 record against the spread[20-25]), the Clippers have shown no signs of turning things around anytime soon. The one valid excuse the Clippers have this year is that they have been one of most injured teams in the leagues. Marcus “Cotton” Camby was injured to start the year and was recently injured again. Then, Chris Kaman was lost for an indefinite period of time in late November, just as the Clippers traded for Zach Randolph. What seemed like fortunate timing turned into yet another disaster, as Randolph has been out since December 28th with a knee injury and the oft-injured Baron Davis joined him on the shelf just a few days later. That left the Clippers without their three best veterans for the past month, and as such they sport a 2-12 January record.

The lone bright spot for the Clippers has been the development of rookie Eric Gordon and sophomore Al Thornton, both blossoming into prolific scorers in the absence of Kaman, Randolph and Davis. With Davis and Camby recently returning to action and Randolph expected back shortly, it is tempting to look at the Clippers as a team that should improve greatly down the stretch. While that may be true, we don’t see the Clippers making significant improvements until Chris Kaman returns from injury, and recommend fading the Clippers until then. Our reasoning is that the public will likely start favoring the Clippers upon the return of Davis and Randolph, two “big name” players, while paying little attention to the return of Kaman, a relatively unknown rebounding and shot-blocking machine. In actuality, Kaman is the player most likely to help them win games and cover spreads, not Davis (35% from the field) and Randolph (3.3 turnovers per game). Kaman is expected to return sometime after the all-star break, so keep up with our injury coverage for updates over the next few weeks.

Milwaukee Bucks

Michael Redd will not play another game for the Milwaukee Bucks this season. Not exactly breaking news anymore, but we wanted to take a moment to look deeper into the Bucks situation as they adjust to the loss of their leading scorer and the face of their franchise. First, there is no denying Redd is a dynamic scorer and a “clutch” shooter, if you believe in such things. Averaging 20 points per game (PPG) to go along with 2 three-pointers per game and 45% shooting is no easy feat. However, Redd is also notorious for being a scorer first, and, well, nothing second. He’s not a great defender, not a great rebounder, and not a great passer. It’s fair to say that Redd is a somewhat overrated player, and while his presence will be missed, the Bucks have one of the best backup guards in the league in Ramon Sessions.

In November, while Redd was out with a badly sprained ankle, Sessions averaged 15 PPG and 6 assists per game (APG). For the season, Redd was averaging 21 PPG and 3 APG. If we take the liberty of assuming that one assist is roughly equal to two points, then the “net points” generated by each player as a starter is identical: 27. We can use this information to assume that although Sessions will not score like Redd, he will create opportunities for teammates at a roughly equal level, and the Bucks overall play shouldn’t suffer. Now, it can be argued that Redd’s presence as a three-point threat is not something that Sessions (career 22% from beyond the arc) can hope to replicate. This is absolutely true, and we wouldn’t pretend to be able to put into numbers every aspect of what a player brings to the court. However, what we can conceptualize makes it seem rather clear that Redd’s absence will have a much smaller impact than the public will think, especially since high-scoring players are habitually overrated by most people, and that presents value in the sports betting marketplace.

Quick Hit: The San Antonio Spurs lead the league by a large margin in games won by three points or less (9-2). Great coaching, or great luck?

Happy Friday, Stumblers! As we get mercifully close to ending this week, it’s time to talk Super Bowl.

Here are “expert” predictions from the talking heads at ESPN and CNNSI

President Obama is displaying Yinzer tendencies here

Richard Seymour’s wife is straight gangster

The prediction here?

Cardinals 28 Steelers 24

Wisenhunt will devise some protection schemes to give Warner the time he needs to find his outstanding WR corps. With all the focus on Larry Fitz (best WR in the game), it’ll be Anquan Boldin who steps up big in this game-the Steelers can’t cover them both.

The Steelers will have some success running, but it will be a few deep bombs to Santonio Holmes off of play action that keeps their offense flowing. In the end however, the Cardinals passing game will be too much for the Steelers D, which while dominant this season, is vulnerable to exactly what the Cards have-2 big, strong, fast WR’s and an accurate QB who can stand tall in the pocket in the face of heavy pressure.

It may be a harbinger of the apocalypse, but the Arizona Cardinals are going to win the Super Bowl.

Ouch. (cnnsi)

The Sporting Blog has people on location down in Tampa, and there is some serious jersey abuse going on down there. (Sporting Blog)

Santonio Holmes did the dirt as a youngster. (Yahoo)

Federer topped Roddick in the Aussie Open. Again. The world (America, anyway) yawns. (ESPN)

The incomparable Stephan Curry drains a 75 foot heave in this video. Dude is simply awesome. (The Big Lead)

Are the Suns about to be blown up?
With an aging roster, uncertain prospects and stupendously stingy ownership, probably. (Yahoo)

NBA ticket sales holding up surprisingly well considering the current economic climate. (Sports Biz Journal)

Super Bowl Weekend is nearly here. Big Daddy Drew’s Jamboroo will help get you ready. Click here and here for some incredible, nearly lethal game snack ideas. (Deadspin, NYT, Holy Taco)

Sports MarketWatch
NFL Week 21 – Early Moves Super Bowl Edition
1/28/2009 11:01 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio
SportsInsights.comWelcome to this week’s edition  of the Sports MarketWatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports MarketWatch!

Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Dan takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.

Sports MarketWatch – NFL Playoffs

Recapping Regular Season

Christmas started early in NFL Week 15 and 16, but the party ended for the sportsbooks in NFL Week 17.  All sportsbooks reported flat profits in Week 17 with most sportsbooks losing anywhere between 0%-2% of their handle.

SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over 64% of the action on one side, the Public came out on top, going 5-2 — making the Public 57-75 = 43.2% for the season.  SportsInsights.com Games to Watch analysis stumbled in the last week going 0-1, making it 26-22-2 = 54.2% for the season.  Not bad for a free weekly column; imagine the money you’d have won by using our Premium Pro membership!  If you have enjoyed the insights this column provides, please be sure to visit SportsInsights.com and sign up for a Premium Pro Membership. Your bankroll will thank you!

2005 Games to Watch: 33-25 = 56.9%
2006 Games to Watch: 31-18 = 63.3%
2007 Games to Watch: 25-19 = 56.8%
2008 Games to Watch: 26-22 = 54.2%

Special Thanks

I’d like to thank the line managers at our contributing sportsbooks for taking the time to speak with me every week, allowing unprecedented access to their line boards and minds.  It’s been an education in itself. I’d also like to thank the loyal readers of Sports Marketwatch.  Your encouragement and support made this weekly column a joy to produce. I hope the Sports Marketwatch has shown readers the importance of line value – while helping them to another profitable NFL Season.  Visit SportsInsights.com to view Live Betting Statistics coming from the line boards of multiple sportsbooks.

College Basketball – Produces More Plays + Higher Win %

This weekly column is designed to highlight the revolutionary sports betting information found on SportsInsights.com. As much fun as football is to bet and watch, college basketball has been our most CONSISTENT and PROFITABLE sport.  Basketball produces mores plays and a higher win percentage. Take your winnings from this year’s NFL Sports Marketwatch and purchase a Premium Pro membership at SportsInsights.com today. Your bankroll will thank you!

NFL Playoffs – Games to Watch (1-2 = 33.3%)

The NFL Playoffs are a totally different animal than the NFL Regular season. The amount of “Public” square bets skyrockets.  The culmination of this trend is the Super Bowl, the most wagered sporting event of the year. Everyone, and their mother, wagers on the Super Bowl. From the casual “box-office-pool” – to the professional sports bettor – to the Superbowl commercials: everyone has some interest in the Superbowl.

For value-minded sports investors, this massive influx of “Public” money means opportunity. During the NFL Playoffs, odds makers heavily weigh Public opinion when deciding on a game’s betting line. They’ll shade a line 2-3 pts knowing that the Public will be heavily on one side. “Public Money” dwarfs the amount of “Sharp Money” buying back the shaded lines.

SportsInsights.com and Superbowl XLIII

Contrarian Sports Investing

SportsInsights.com (“SIs”) believes in a contrarian approach to sports investing and seeks out value in the sports marketplace. One of the key parameters to SportsInsights’ quantitative approach to sports betting is our proprietary sports betting percentages, compiled from several online sportsbooks. The betting percentages tell us the percentage of bets on each side of a bet. Our research has shown that it normally pays to “fade” the public or “bet against the Public.”

The Public typically likes taking the favorite in most sports events. However, this year’s Superbowl shows the Public loving the Arizona Cardinals and their Cinderella march to the Superbowl. This is an interesting departure for the Public and shows how much “value” there might be on the Steelers. This contrarian factor of “fading” the Public points to the Steelers.

Edge: Pittsburgh Steelers

Current Betting Percentages on the Super Bowl
Pittsburg Steelers 42%
Arizona Cardinals 58%

Smart Money and Point Spread Line Movement

SportsInsights uses another indicator that we call “Smart Money Analysis.” This method is more selective but also more powerful because historically, it has had a better winning percentage than using “betting percentages” as a standalone indicator.

For the Superbowl, the “generally-available” line opened at Pittsburgh -6.5. As we saw above, early Superbowl betting has most of the bets (about 60%) coming in on the underdog Arizona Cardinals. Even with the majority of bets landing on Arizona, the line has inched up to Pittsburgh -7. This is a relatively large move in the NFL – especially near a “key number” like 7.

This means that “big money” – which is usually “smart money” – is taking the Steelers. In other words, even though most bettors are on Arizona, “big bets” on Pittsburgh are more than balancing the Public’s action on Arizona. This indicator says to go along with the “smart money” and take Pittsburgh.

Edge: Pittsburgh Steelers  -6.5 (Bookmaker.com)

Intangibles and Other Contrarian Angles

In addition to our “quant” or “technical” analysis of the sports marketplace (based on “betting percentages” and “line movement”), SportsInsights tries to analyze games using some approaches that resemble “fundamental analysis” in the financial markets.

For example, are there some extraneous factors that make a bet seem over-valued or under-valued? We try to “buy low and sell high” by using a “what-have-you-done-for-me-lately?” factor. That is, the Public tends to exaggerate the importance of recent events.

Arizona’s offense has been pounding the opposition. After being one of the highest-scoring teams during the regular season, Kurt Warner and crew have rung up more than 30 points in each of their playoff match-ups. Warner and his receivers look like they are playing pick-up football against a bunch of five-year-olds! The Public loves offense and this is another reason we feel that Arizona is currently over-valued. We’ll “sell” the Cardinals at a recent “high.”

During the early part of the regular season, the media focused on teams like Tennessee and both NY teams as “Superbowl favorites.” Later in the season, fans saw teams like the Eagles, the Chargers, and the Colts streak into the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Steelers played “steady football” all season long and “quietly” (if you can call their defense quiet!) ran up a 12-4 record, yielding a league-low 223 points.

Some of the intangibles point to “selling” the Cardinals at a “high” and “buying” a great Steelers team that avoided being over-hyped.

Edge: Pittsburgh Steelers  -6.5 (Bookmaker.com)

Quick Analysis of Recent Superbowl Scores

SportsInsights’ analysts took a quick peek at recent Superbowl scores.
• 3 out of the last 5 Superbowls were settled by a FG or less.
• 4 out of the last 7 Superbowls were settled by a FG or less.
• 6 out the last 11 Superbowls were settled by a TD or less.

We normally hate giving 7 points or more (or even taking a favorite!). However, we let the numbers do the talking. And, yet again, the recent history of Superbowls (and an emphasis on shorter-term events) might be giving us some value. Over the much larger sample size of 42 Superbowl games:

• 29 out of 42 games have been settled by more than a TD.

Football fans seem to be forgetting how we used to see lopsided (and sadly, sometimes boring) Superbowls. This is giving us some value as the general Public is taking the points in this Superbowl.

Edge: Pittsburgh Steelers  -6.5 (Bookmaker.com)

Overview

SportsInsights looks for value in a variety of ways. For more information about SportsInsights.com’s philosophy on sports investing, please visit our articles on Sports Investing and Value. For live odds and SIs’ exclusive “betting percentages” on major U.S. sporting events, please visit www.SportsInsights.com.

Almost all of our regular angles and analysis of the “sports marketplace” point to contrarian value on the Pittsburgh Steelers. Remember to “shop for the best line” because you can still get Pittsburgh -6.5 if you check around. Does defense win Championships? We’ll see in a few days.

Games to Watch – Playoff Editions (1-2 = 33.3%)
Pittsburgh Steelers  -6.5 (Bookmaker.com)

It should be another exciting NFL Super Bowl.  Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.  I’ll be back next NFL Season with an all new edition of the Sports MarketWatch.

Enjoy the games!

Editor’s Note: The above was written by Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.Every week SportsInsights speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding giving sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL Football point-spread market. Check out SportsInsights at http://SportsInsights.com.

This video is slightly NSFW due to language. I love when people say “We” instead of “They”. Dude, I’m embarrassed for you.

Origin of the Bud Bowl

Butters’ Super Bowl Pick (Kissing Suzy Kolber)

Jon Gruden, a scum ball?? How is that possible? Hhe went to the University of Dayton. (Midwest Sports Fan)

And a close one between Duke and Wake Forest.

Two Helpings of Strange Red Wings News

The first story involves the suspension of Red Wings stars Nicklas Lidstrom and Pavel Datsyuk who were forced to sit out last night’s Red Wings vs Blue Jackets game due to not participating in this past weekend’s All Star game.

“I thought it was the best move for the team,” Lidstrom said Monday. “I could have taken a game off in the middle of the season and maybe missed three days. I took the weekend off, and it ended up being six or seven days. For the Red Wings, I think it’s the best move to try to heal up.

In classic display of NHL ineptitude, the NHL and the league’s general managers made a rule requiring players that do not participate in the All Star game to sit out a regular season game. Talk about fighting the symptoms and not the disease: THE NHL ALL STAR GAME SUCKS! (even ESPN thinks so).

The second unusual story involved Red Wings center Henrik Zetterberg being signed to a 12-year contract running through 2021.

“Our goal is to try to keep this team together,” said team vice president Steve Yzerman, who won three Cups as a Red Wings player. “He’s the kind of person and the kind of player we want in this organization.”

12 years? Why? That’s ridicuous. Not surprisingly, it represents the longest contract in team history. The agreement likely means the team won’t be able to resign both Johan Franzen and Marian Hossa who are free agents this summer.

The Good

The Super Bowl on Sunday will be broadcast by NBC, and I would like to thank Al Michaels for doing the game in advance.  This might be the last Super Bowl for the team, since they won’t have another one for at least 3 more years.  Out of all the broadcast teams, Michaels and Madden, have been the most entertaining and intelligent.  The rest of them can take a hike, because I am waiting for the time when I can turn the broadcast off, listen to the game in Surround Sound, and just have the PA Announcer from the Stadium.  I know what you are going to say…NBC tried it already and it was a major flop.  Well at that time, NBC did not have the fancy graphics package that shows us down, yardage, penalties, player names, etc.  Also with Directv Sunday Ticket you can follow the game stats while watching the game, thanks to the handy red button.

The Bad

So what is preventing the switch?  Ego.  If we went to a no nonsense broadcast who would pay Phil Simms ridiculous amounts of money to sound like an Jackass?  We wouldn’t get to hear the ex-player talk about his experience and get his view point on life from the millionaire’s club.  To be honest, if the networks were smart they could use the create a seperate sound broadcast for those of us that don’t want to hear the Awful Announcing.  It could be used much like the SAP button is used for spanish broadcasts.  Another good “idea” would be to cut out the high paid third/fourth wheels in the booth and just stick to a two man show.  The country as a whole has past the “Talking Heads” in football knowledge, due to the sheer amount of games seen and video games played.  A lot of guys are tired of explaining to their wives/girlfriends why the so called “smart broadcasters” are wrong in play calls.  You see from my 50 inch HDTV I can see the play a whole lot better then Joe Buck can, some 300 feet away in the booth looking down at a 19 inch monitor.

And...The Ugly.

The guys that are really important are the ones running the show from the broadcast truck who give us the replays we need to see.  And the camara men on the field are also the ones who give us such a great shot of the game anyway.  I would give them all a raise and fire the crappy “talent” in the booth they have working for regional broadcasts.  So maybe they have to keep the National Broadcast Announcers for the general public.  At least give me an option of not listening to them and enjoying a “game like” experience in my living room.  Technology has come a long way, I just want the ability to selectively mute out Phil Simms, someone please make that happen.

Editor’s Note: The following was written by Dustin at The Game Owl. The Game Owl focuses on game and league previews, marquee match ups, fantasy sports and the best games to attend. Dustin is a former college athlete, adamant sports fan and contributor to the TicketStumbler Blog.  Check out his website at www.thegameowl.com

Video interview with the always entertaining Ovie. (On Frozen Blog)

AC Milan making noises about keeping Becks, even after the L.A. Galaxy received assurances from club and player that Mr. Posh would be back in L.A. in time for the MLS season. When it comes to dealing with Serie A clubs, it’s usually best to NOT TRUST THEM AT ALL. (cnnsi)

Ugh. Of course. The more interesting/important question is whether or not Jerry Jones will wise up and dump Owens in time to let the Cowboys have a quasi-normal offseason of preparation for once. (ESPN)

Chelsea FC leading the way on assessing the impact of sports upon the human brain? I’d love to see the IQ test results of some choice American athletes (Times Online)

Preview of tonight’s big clash on Versus between the Caps and the Bruins. # 1 and # 2 in the East out of the All Star break, it’ll be interesting to see where both clubs sit at the end of the regular season. (Sportsline)

Finally, as the media spins up the hype during Super Bowl week, check out these fan blogs for useful perspective on the Cards and Steelers.

NHL All Star weekend has come and gone with little hype or fanfare. The Skills competitions on Saturday were fun, but the game itself was bland as usual. Watching hockey with no checking is like watching football with no tackling: largely pointless. Nevertheless, Montreal was a great host city and we are in store for an awesome 2nd half of the season. (ESPN)

Joe Torre is letting it fly in his new book. Not surprsingly, A-Rod gets thrown under the bus. Joe Torre might want to sell a few books, but the man is not a liar. A-Rod is despised by his teammates, most fans and anyone who was rooting for the Madonna-Guy Ritchie marriage to work out-what a turbo. (NY Post)

Inventive high school hockey player could start a new trend. (Boston.com)

Michael Redd demolished his knee over the weekend, which means he won’t be heading to Cleveland to bolster the Cavs’ backcourt down the stretch. (Sportsline)

Ugly incident in the Arizona – Houston college hoops game this weekend. The Houston player blatantly steps on Buddinger’s face, and should be suspended for remainder of the season. Ugly, ugly stuff that has no business happening in collegiate athletics. If this happened in the NBA, fine, but not when these kids aren’t getting paid. (Sporting Blog)

Also ugly: Eddy Curry’s ex-girlfriend, and mother of his child, murdered in her Chicago apartment. Her 9 month old daughter from a different father was also killed. (Yahoo)

This needs to happen immediately, but knowing the NCAA, it’ll be a decade. (ESPN)

We’ll be getting you ready for the Super Bowl all week. Here’s a look at how casting would shake out for SB43: The Movie. (Mondesi’s House)