Editor’s Note: The below was written by Chris at SportsInsights. Every week SportsInsights speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sports books about which teams the Public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding giving sports fans unprecedented insight into the NBA point-spread market. Check out SportsInsights at http://SportsInsights.com.  

Editor’s Note: The below was written by Chris at SportsInsights. Every week SportsInsights speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sports books about which teams the Public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding giving sports fans unprecedented insight into the NBA point-spread market. Check out SportsInsights at http://SportsInsights.com.

New Jersey Nets

The New Jersey Nets seem to have a bipolar disorder. Tied for the last spot in the Eastern Conference playoff picture, the Nets certainly have a lot to play for down the stretch. However, looking at the team’s last dozen games, the Nets had lost eight of nine games before winning their last three. Of those eight loses, only two were by five points or less, while two of the others were by twenty points of more. In a thirty-two point loss to the Celtics, Vince Carter and Devin Harris were benched for the entirety of the second half, a coaching move basically unheard of in today’s NBA, and obviously something you never want to see if you’re taking the points. However, the Nets have now won three in a row, Vince Carter has played through nagging injuries all season, they are in the thick of the Eastern Conference playoff race, and boast a 27-23 record against the spread, ninth in the NBA. So what is the enterprising sports bettor to make of all of this?

Our advice is simple – Proceed With Caution. The Nets have performed well against the spread to this point, but that’s mostly because the public vastly underrated Devin Harris and Brook Lopez heading into the season. They are both now known commodities. However, Vince Carter is still somewhat overlooked by the public (culminating his missing the All-Star Game for the first time in nearly a decade), as he continues to play at a very high level and has played 75 games or more for three seasons in a row – the “injury prone” tag is outdated. All said, we think the Nets are still a little better than the public perceives them to be. Additionally, the Nets are one of the few teams to perform better on the road (13-12) than at home (10-15), making for an interesting dynamic in the sports betting world. Conventional wisdom is that the home team is given a few points in the spread, and it’s hard to say how much New Jersey’s Home/Away differential is affecting the lines. Recently, on the road to face the terrible Washington Wizards, the game opened as a Pick ‘Em before moving to Nets minus-1. The Nets won by almost thirty points. Is that really the kind of spread a playoff contender, who plays better on the road, should be getting playing at Washington, the worst team in the league? It seems like the books are hesitant to accept that the Nets really do play better on the road, so if you believe the trend will continue, value exists.

On the contrary, the biggest factor that makes New Jersey a scary team to bet on, and why we advise caution, is their coach, Lawrence Frank. Frank is a big “effort” guy, and quickly sours on players that he perceives as not giving their all or taking plays off – possibly a result of spending four years under Bob Knight at Indiana. He also tends to give up on games early, preferring to bench starters to make a point rather than attempt the comeback. For this reason, we highly recommend taking the moneyline rather than the points with the Nets, as they tend to either win the game or lose big, sporting the third most losses in the Eastern Conference by ten points or more (only Toronto and Washington, the two worst teams in the conference, have more.)

Utah Jazz

The return of Carlos Boozer is a situation that has more layers to it than is immediately apparent. Boozer is an extremely talented player whose presence should immediately help the Jazz, but what about the collateral damage his return may have on the psyches (not to mention minutes) of the players around him? The Jazz went 8-4 in the twelve games that both Boozer and Paul Millsap, his replacement, were healthy. Millsap, however, was a different player then, coming off the bench and fulfilling the duties of a role player. After averaging 17 points and 10 rebounds as a starter since Boozer’s injury, you can bet that Millsap doesn’t look at himself as role player any longer. So the question is, what will have the biggest impact when Boozer returns to the court – the additional talent, or the additional ego?

The first thing to realize is that Boozer and Millsap are remarkably similar players. Both had outstanding collegiate careers: Boozer lead Duke to an NCAA Championship, while Millsap lead the NCAA in rebounding for a record-setting three consecutive years at Louisiana Tech. Both are considered undersized forwards: Boozer is listed at 6-9, Millsap at 6-8. Both were drafted in the second round of the NBA draft due to those height concerns, and both have blossomed into outstanding NBA players. Now, both of them desire to be the starting Power Forward for the Utah Jazz. While Boozer will undoubtedly reclaim his starting spot, we think Jerry Sloan, the longest-tenured coach in the NBA, will handle the situation well. Millsap could possibly continue to start at the small forward spot, especially since Andrei Kirilenko is out of the lineup. However, if he does end up coming off the bench, we think there will be enough minutes to make Millsap happy and allow him to continue to contribute at a high level. In this case, we believe talent will trump ego.

Knees are the biggest concern for the Utah Jazz and those looking to wager money on them; specifically, those of Deron Williams and Andrei Kirilenko. Williams played (and played outstandingly well) Thursday and his injured knee is not expected to be an ongoing concern, while Kirilenko is simply hoping to return before the end of the season. Knee injuries are tough because they affect lateral movement, which is very important for a point guard like Williams and an active defender like Kirilenko. Be sure to keep up with our injury coverage for updates on the two.

All that said, we like Utah to improve their play when Boozer returns. The Jazz are a team loaded with talent and coached by one of the best in the business. Don’t shy away from backing the Jazz in the second half as they look like a team primed to go on a nice run.

Editor’s Note: The below was written by Chris at SportsInsights. Every week SportsInsights speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sports books about which teams the Public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding giving sports fans unprecedented insight into the NBA point-spread market. Check out SportsInsights at http://SportsInsights.com.

Each week, we’re going to take a look at a few teams around The Association that we think deserve extra consideration. We will not be giving picks; however, we believe this information can help the prudent bettor looking for that extra bit of information to help them make a more informed decision on upcoming games. We welcome your feedback – please direct any comments to chris@sportsinsights.com. Also, you can comment or subscribe to our blog here. For previous articles, please visit our archive.

L.A. Clippers

The L.A. Clippers have been the laughing stock of the NBA for quite some time now, and this year has been no different. Sporting one of the worst records in the league (and a below .500 record against the spread[20-25]), the Clippers have shown no signs of turning things around anytime soon. The one valid excuse the Clippers have this year is that they have been one of most injured teams in the leagues. Marcus “Cotton” Camby was injured to start the year and was recently injured again. Then, Chris Kaman was lost for an indefinite period of time in late November, just as the Clippers traded for Zach Randolph. What seemed like fortunate timing turned into yet another disaster, as Randolph has been out since December 28th with a knee injury and the oft-injured Baron Davis joined him on the shelf just a few days later. That left the Clippers without their three best veterans for the past month, and as such they sport a 2-12 January record.

The lone bright spot for the Clippers has been the development of rookie Eric Gordon and sophomore Al Thornton, both blossoming into prolific scorers in the absence of Kaman, Randolph and Davis. With Davis and Camby recently returning to action and Randolph expected back shortly, it is tempting to look at the Clippers as a team that should improve greatly down the stretch. While that may be true, we don’t see the Clippers making significant improvements until Chris Kaman returns from injury, and recommend fading the Clippers until then. Our reasoning is that the public will likely start favoring the Clippers upon the return of Davis and Randolph, two “big name” players, while paying little attention to the return of Kaman, a relatively unknown rebounding and shot-blocking machine. In actuality, Kaman is the player most likely to help them win games and cover spreads, not Davis (35% from the field) and Randolph (3.3 turnovers per game). Kaman is expected to return sometime after the all-star break, so keep up with our injury coverage for updates over the next few weeks.

Milwaukee Bucks

Michael Redd will not play another game for the Milwaukee Bucks this season. Not exactly breaking news anymore, but we wanted to take a moment to look deeper into the Bucks situation as they adjust to the loss of their leading scorer and the face of their franchise. First, there is no denying Redd is a dynamic scorer and a “clutch” shooter, if you believe in such things. Averaging 20 points per game (PPG) to go along with 2 three-pointers per game and 45% shooting is no easy feat. However, Redd is also notorious for being a scorer first, and, well, nothing second. He’s not a great defender, not a great rebounder, and not a great passer. It’s fair to say that Redd is a somewhat overrated player, and while his presence will be missed, the Bucks have one of the best backup guards in the league in Ramon Sessions.

In November, while Redd was out with a badly sprained ankle, Sessions averaged 15 PPG and 6 assists per game (APG). For the season, Redd was averaging 21 PPG and 3 APG. If we take the liberty of assuming that one assist is roughly equal to two points, then the “net points” generated by each player as a starter is identical: 27. We can use this information to assume that although Sessions will not score like Redd, he will create opportunities for teammates at a roughly equal level, and the Bucks overall play shouldn’t suffer. Now, it can be argued that Redd’s presence as a three-point threat is not something that Sessions (career 22% from beyond the arc) can hope to replicate. This is absolutely true, and we wouldn’t pretend to be able to put into numbers every aspect of what a player brings to the court. However, what we can conceptualize makes it seem rather clear that Redd’s absence will have a much smaller impact than the public will think, especially since high-scoring players are habitually overrated by most people, and that presents value in the sports betting marketplace.

Quick Hit: The San Antonio Spurs lead the league by a large margin in games won by three points or less (9-2). Great coaching, or great luck?

Sports MarketWatch
NFL Week 21 – Early Moves Super Bowl Edition
1/28/2009 11:01 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio
SportsInsights.comWelcome to this week’s edition  of the Sports MarketWatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports MarketWatch!

Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Dan takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.

Sports MarketWatch – NFL Playoffs

Recapping Regular Season

Christmas started early in NFL Week 15 and 16, but the party ended for the sportsbooks in NFL Week 17.  All sportsbooks reported flat profits in Week 17 with most sportsbooks losing anywhere between 0%-2% of their handle.

SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over 64% of the action on one side, the Public came out on top, going 5-2 — making the Public 57-75 = 43.2% for the season.  SportsInsights.com Games to Watch analysis stumbled in the last week going 0-1, making it 26-22-2 = 54.2% for the season.  Not bad for a free weekly column; imagine the money you’d have won by using our Premium Pro membership!  If you have enjoyed the insights this column provides, please be sure to visit SportsInsights.com and sign up for a Premium Pro Membership. Your bankroll will thank you!

2005 Games to Watch: 33-25 = 56.9%
2006 Games to Watch: 31-18 = 63.3%
2007 Games to Watch: 25-19 = 56.8%
2008 Games to Watch: 26-22 = 54.2%

Special Thanks

I’d like to thank the line managers at our contributing sportsbooks for taking the time to speak with me every week, allowing unprecedented access to their line boards and minds.  It’s been an education in itself. I’d also like to thank the loyal readers of Sports Marketwatch.  Your encouragement and support made this weekly column a joy to produce. I hope the Sports Marketwatch has shown readers the importance of line value – while helping them to another profitable NFL Season.  Visit SportsInsights.com to view Live Betting Statistics coming from the line boards of multiple sportsbooks.

College Basketball – Produces More Plays + Higher Win %

This weekly column is designed to highlight the revolutionary sports betting information found on SportsInsights.com. As much fun as football is to bet and watch, college basketball has been our most CONSISTENT and PROFITABLE sport.  Basketball produces mores plays and a higher win percentage. Take your winnings from this year’s NFL Sports Marketwatch and purchase a Premium Pro membership at SportsInsights.com today. Your bankroll will thank you!

NFL Playoffs – Games to Watch (1-2 = 33.3%)

The NFL Playoffs are a totally different animal than the NFL Regular season. The amount of “Public” square bets skyrockets.  The culmination of this trend is the Super Bowl, the most wagered sporting event of the year. Everyone, and their mother, wagers on the Super Bowl. From the casual “box-office-pool” – to the professional sports bettor – to the Superbowl commercials: everyone has some interest in the Superbowl.

For value-minded sports investors, this massive influx of “Public” money means opportunity. During the NFL Playoffs, odds makers heavily weigh Public opinion when deciding on a game’s betting line. They’ll shade a line 2-3 pts knowing that the Public will be heavily on one side. “Public Money” dwarfs the amount of “Sharp Money” buying back the shaded lines.

SportsInsights.com and Superbowl XLIII

Contrarian Sports Investing

SportsInsights.com (“SIs”) believes in a contrarian approach to sports investing and seeks out value in the sports marketplace. One of the key parameters to SportsInsights’ quantitative approach to sports betting is our proprietary sports betting percentages, compiled from several online sportsbooks. The betting percentages tell us the percentage of bets on each side of a bet. Our research has shown that it normally pays to “fade” the public or “bet against the Public.”

The Public typically likes taking the favorite in most sports events. However, this year’s Superbowl shows the Public loving the Arizona Cardinals and their Cinderella march to the Superbowl. This is an interesting departure for the Public and shows how much “value” there might be on the Steelers. This contrarian factor of “fading” the Public points to the Steelers.

Edge: Pittsburgh Steelers

Current Betting Percentages on the Super Bowl
Pittsburg Steelers 42%
Arizona Cardinals 58%

Smart Money and Point Spread Line Movement

SportsInsights uses another indicator that we call “Smart Money Analysis.” This method is more selective but also more powerful because historically, it has had a better winning percentage than using “betting percentages” as a standalone indicator.

For the Superbowl, the “generally-available” line opened at Pittsburgh -6.5. As we saw above, early Superbowl betting has most of the bets (about 60%) coming in on the underdog Arizona Cardinals. Even with the majority of bets landing on Arizona, the line has inched up to Pittsburgh -7. This is a relatively large move in the NFL – especially near a “key number” like 7.

This means that “big money” – which is usually “smart money” – is taking the Steelers. In other words, even though most bettors are on Arizona, “big bets” on Pittsburgh are more than balancing the Public’s action on Arizona. This indicator says to go along with the “smart money” and take Pittsburgh.

Edge: Pittsburgh Steelers  -6.5 (Bookmaker.com)

Intangibles and Other Contrarian Angles

In addition to our “quant” or “technical” analysis of the sports marketplace (based on “betting percentages” and “line movement”), SportsInsights tries to analyze games using some approaches that resemble “fundamental analysis” in the financial markets.

For example, are there some extraneous factors that make a bet seem over-valued or under-valued? We try to “buy low and sell high” by using a “what-have-you-done-for-me-lately?” factor. That is, the Public tends to exaggerate the importance of recent events.

Arizona’s offense has been pounding the opposition. After being one of the highest-scoring teams during the regular season, Kurt Warner and crew have rung up more than 30 points in each of their playoff match-ups. Warner and his receivers look like they are playing pick-up football against a bunch of five-year-olds! The Public loves offense and this is another reason we feel that Arizona is currently over-valued. We’ll “sell” the Cardinals at a recent “high.”

During the early part of the regular season, the media focused on teams like Tennessee and both NY teams as “Superbowl favorites.” Later in the season, fans saw teams like the Eagles, the Chargers, and the Colts streak into the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Steelers played “steady football” all season long and “quietly” (if you can call their defense quiet!) ran up a 12-4 record, yielding a league-low 223 points.

Some of the intangibles point to “selling” the Cardinals at a “high” and “buying” a great Steelers team that avoided being over-hyped.

Edge: Pittsburgh Steelers  -6.5 (Bookmaker.com)

Quick Analysis of Recent Superbowl Scores

SportsInsights’ analysts took a quick peek at recent Superbowl scores.
• 3 out of the last 5 Superbowls were settled by a FG or less.
• 4 out of the last 7 Superbowls were settled by a FG or less.
• 6 out the last 11 Superbowls were settled by a TD or less.

We normally hate giving 7 points or more (or even taking a favorite!). However, we let the numbers do the talking. And, yet again, the recent history of Superbowls (and an emphasis on shorter-term events) might be giving us some value. Over the much larger sample size of 42 Superbowl games:

• 29 out of 42 games have been settled by more than a TD.

Football fans seem to be forgetting how we used to see lopsided (and sadly, sometimes boring) Superbowls. This is giving us some value as the general Public is taking the points in this Superbowl.

Edge: Pittsburgh Steelers  -6.5 (Bookmaker.com)

Overview

SportsInsights looks for value in a variety of ways. For more information about SportsInsights.com’s philosophy on sports investing, please visit our articles on Sports Investing and Value. For live odds and SIs’ exclusive “betting percentages” on major U.S. sporting events, please visit www.SportsInsights.com.

Almost all of our regular angles and analysis of the “sports marketplace” point to contrarian value on the Pittsburgh Steelers. Remember to “shop for the best line” because you can still get Pittsburgh -6.5 if you check around. Does defense win Championships? We’ll see in a few days.

Games to Watch – Playoff Editions (1-2 = 33.3%)
Pittsburgh Steelers  -6.5 (Bookmaker.com)

It should be another exciting NFL Super Bowl.  Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.  I’ll be back next NFL Season with an all new edition of the Sports MarketWatch.

Enjoy the games!

Editor’s Note: The above was written by Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.Every week SportsInsights speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding giving sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL Football point-spread market. Check out SportsInsights at http://SportsInsights.com.

Sports MarketWatch – NFL Playoffs

Recapping Regular Season

Christmas started early in NFL Week 15 and 16, but the party ended for the sportsbooks in NFL Week 17.  All sportsbooks reported flat profits in Week 17 with most sportsbooks losing anywhere between 0%-2% of their handle. 

SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over 64% of the action on one side, the Public came out on top, going 5-2 — making the Public 57-75 = 43.2% for the season.  SportsInsights.com Games to Watch analysis stumbled in the last week going 0-1, making it 26-22-2 = 54.2% for the season.  Not bad for a free weekly column; imagine the money you’d have won by using our Premium Pro membership!  If you have enjoyed the insights this column provides, please be sure to visit SportsInsights.com and sign up for a Premium Pro Membership. Your bankroll will thank you!  

2005 Games to Watch: 33-25 = 56.9%
2006 Games to Watch: 31-18 = 63.3%
2007 Games to Watch: 25-19 = 56.8%
2008 Games to Watch: 26-22 = 54.2%

Special Thanks

I’d like to thank the line managers at our contributing sportsbooks for taking the time to speak with me every week, allowing unprecedented access to their line boards and minds.  It’s been an education in itself. I’d also like to thank the loyal readers of Sports Marketwatch.  Your encouragement and support made this weekly column a joy to produce. I hope the Sports Marketwatch has shown readers the importance of line value – while helping them to another profitable NFL Season.  Visit SportsInsights.com to view Live Betting Statistics coming from the line boards of multiple sportsbooks.

NFL Playoffs – Games to Watch   (0-2 = 0.0%)
The NFL Playoffs are a totally different animal than the NFL Regular season. The amount of “Public” square bets skyrockets.  The culmination of this trend is the Super Bowl, the most wagered sporting event of the year. Everyone, and their mother, wagers on the Super Bowl. From the casual “box-office-pool” – to the professional sports bettor – to the Superbowl commercials: everyone has some interest in the Superbowl.

For value-minded sports investors, this massive influx of “Public” money means opportunity. During the NFL Playoffs, odds makers heavily weigh Public opinion when deciding on a game’s betting line. They’ll shade a line 2-3 pts knowing that the Public will be heavily on one side. “Public Money” dwarfs the amount of “Sharp Money” buying back the shaded lines.
Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers

The Public loves the Ravens right now.  The Ravens pounded the Miami Dolphins in the first round of the playoffs before holding the powerhouse Tennessee Titans to 10 points last week.  More than 60% of the bets of the bets are coming in on the Baltimore Ravens.  However, the line opened at Pittsburgh -5 and has moved to Pittsburgh -6.  This means that some “big money” is taking the Pittsburgh Steelers.  

We’ll “bet against the Public” and take the Steelers — tagging along with the “big money” or “smart money.”  The Ravens have been on a roll — and six points seems like a lot of points to give in what might be a low-scoring game.  This is a good contrarian value on several levels.  Take the Steelers and give the points.  

Play On Pittsburgh Steelers

So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch:

Games to Watch – Playoff Editions  (0-2 = 0.0%)   
Pittsburgh Steelers  -6

It should be another exciting NFL Playoff run.  Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.  I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports MarketWatch.

Enjoy the games!  

Editor’s Note: The above was written by Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.Every week SportsInsights speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding giving sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL Football point-spread market. Check out SportsInsights at http://SportsInsights.com.

Welcome to this week’s edition  of the Sports MarketWatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports MarketWatch!

Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Dan takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.

Sports MarketWatch – NFL Week 18 WildCard Weekend

Recapping Regular Season

Christmas started early in NFL Week 15 and 16, but the party ended for the sportsbooks in NFL Week 17.  All sportsbooks reported flat profits in Week 17 with most sportsbooks losing anywhere between 0%-2% of their handle.

SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over 64% of the action on one side, the Public came out on top, going 5-2 — making the Public 57-75 = 43.2% for the season.  SportsInsights.com Games to Watch analysis stumbled in the last week going 0-1,making it 26-22-2 = 54.2% for the season.  Not bad for a free weekly column; imagine the money you’d have won by using our Premium Pro membership!  If you have enjoyed the insights this column provides, please be sure to visit SportsInsights.com and sign up for a Premium Pro Membership. Your bankroll will thank you!

2005 Games to Watch: 33-25 = 56.9%
2006 Games to Watch: 31-18 = 63.3%
2007 Games to Watch: 25-19 = 56.8%
2008 Games to Watch: 26-21 = 54.2%

Special Thanks

I’d like to thank the line managers at our contributing sportsbooks for taking the time to speak with me every week, allowing unprecedented access to their line boards and minds.  It’s been an education in itself. I’d also like to thank the loyal readers of Sports Marketwatch.  Your encouragement and support made this weekly column a joy to produce. I hope the Sports Marketwatch has shown readers the importance of line value – while helping them to another profitable NFL Season.  Visit SportsInsights.com to view Live Betting Statistics coming from the line boards of multiple sportsbooks.

Basketball – Produces More Plays + Higher Win %

This weekly column is designed to highlight the revolutionary sports betting information found on SportsInsights.com. As much fun as football is to bet and watch, basketball has been our most CONSISTENT and PROFITABLE sport.  Basketball produces mores plays and a higher win percentage. Take your winnings from this year’s NFL Sports Marketwatch and purchase a Premium Pro membership at SportsInsights.com today. Your bankroll will thank you!

NFL Wild Card Weekend – Games to Watch   (0-0 = 0.0%)

The NFL Playoffs are a totally different animal than the NFL Regular season. The amount of “Public” square bets skyrockets.  The culmination of this trend is the Super Bowl, the most wagered sporting event of the year. Everyone, and their mother, wagers on the Super Bowl. From the casual “box-office-pool” – to the professional sports bettor – to the Superbowl commercials: everyone has some interest in the Superbowl.

For value-minded sports investors, this massive influx of “Public” money means opportunity. During the NFL Playoffs, odds makers heavily weigh Public opinion when deciding on a game’s betting line. They’ll shade a line 2-3 pts knowing that the Public will be heavily on one side. “Public Money” dwarfs the amount of “Sharp Money” buying back the shaded lines.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Minnesota Vikings

The Philadelphia Eagles made the playoffs in dramatic fashion.  They needed help (a LOT of help!) — to make their game with Dallas meaningful last week.  The Eagles got help with some big upsets in the early (1PM) games — and then took care of business, demolishing the Dallas Cowboys at home 44-6.  The Eagles finished the season on a 4-1 run and the Public is taking notice.  A huge 81% of bets are landing on the Eagles, and our readers know what this means: we want to “Bet Against the Public” and bet against the Eagles.

The huge number of Public bets on Philly is giving us some additional value.  The line opened at Minnesota +3 -110 but you can now get Minny -3 at +110.  The line may even tick up to +3.5 with the constant barrage of Philly bets.  Let’s “bet against the Public” and sell the Eagles at a high — after their exciting stretch run to make the playoffs, capped off by their huge win over Dallas.  We also like this match-up because Minnesota is a “home dog” that quietly made the playoffs with a 10-6 record.  Take the points and expect the Eagles to come back to earth.

Play On Minnesota Vikings +3

So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch:

Games to Watch – Playoff Editions (0-0 = 0.0%)
Minnesota Vikings +3

It should be another exciting NFL Playoff run.  Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.  I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports MarketWatch.

Enjoy the games!

Editor’s Note: The above was written by Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.Every week SportsInsights speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding giving sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL Football point-spread market. Check out SportsInsights at http://SportsInsights.com.

Sports Marketplace – NCAA Bowl Games (3)

Recapping Bowl Games Week 2

This is our first year providing the NCAA Football Marketwatch, and we finished the regular season just below .500. We got off to a good start in the bowl games with a 3-0 first week, which we followed up with a 2-1 record in our second set of games. Wisconsin was embarrassed by Florida State to give us our first loss of the bowl season. N.C. State almost blew it late, but lost by six to finish within the seven-point spread for another win. Oregon won outright over Oklahoma State for our second win of the week.

If you enjoy the insights this column provides, please be sure to visit SportsInsights.com. We are the leader in sports betting information and statistics.

Overall = 25-23-3 = 52.1%

NCAA Bowl Games (3)

We are splitting the Bowl Season into three NCAA Marketwatches. The first featured games from the first full week of bowl games. The second came from the remaining games in 2008, and this final set features games after the New Year. The third set of bowl games sees the big-time teams and BCS bowls taking place. Things get kicked off with nine games in the first two days, including the granddaddy of bowl games the Rose Bowl on January 1st. Also on the first we get a showdown between two of the nation’s top tailbacks in the Capital One Bowl, with Georgia’s Knowshown Moreno going head-to-head with Michigan State’s Javon Ringer. Of course the big one takes place on January 8th in the BCS Championship Game between Florida and Oklahoma. 

Warning to all new readers of the NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch column: in order to follow our selections, you’ll need ice running through your veins. Be prepared to take up meditation or acupuncture to calm the nerves. The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too go to be true, there is a reason. The underlining theme every week is line value. You’ll consistently need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.

It’s the final set of games until next fall, so we’re expecting lots of action on all the remaining games, especially the BCS Bowls. Visit   SportsInsights.com to view wagering statistics on NCAA games from multiple online sportsbooks. Here is a trio of line value games we are keying on.

NCAA Sports MarketWatch Bowl Games (3) – Games to Watch

Michigan State vs Georgia (1/1 1P)

Michigan State doesn’t want the bad taste from their regular season finale loss to Penn State to linger in their mouth all off-season. The Spartans offensive star feels like it is his role to make that happen. Tailback Javon Ringer rushed for 1,590 yards on the season, but only 42 yards against the Nittany Lions with the Big Ten title on the line. The MSU passing attack has had problems keeping defenses honest this season, as quarterback Brian Hoyer barely completed 50% of his passes on the season. The Spartans will get their best wideout Mark Dell back after the sophomore missed time at the end of the season. Michigan State’s defense has had problems stopping elite running backs this season, and that could be a problem in the Capital One Bowl as they face Georgia’s Knowshown Moreno.

When the season kicked off, Georgia was hoping to appear in Florida for a January bowl game. The Capital One Bowl wasn’t what they had in mind when they were ranked No. 1 in the pre-season. They are also coming off a disappointing 45-42 loss to in-state rival Georgia Tech, in which they allowed 409 rushing yards. The Bulldogs defense had been solid against the run, as they finished the season allowing an average of 129.9 yards per game including the effort against the Yellow Jackets. The offense features one of the most talented groups of position players in the country in quarterback Matthew Stafford, tailback Knowshown Moreno, and wide receiver A.J. Green. The Bulldogs are averaging 32.1 points per game.

The Bulldogs opened as 5.5-point favorites at 5Dimes and many other books tracked by Sports Insights. They are receiving huge backing with 81% of the public spread bets. That huge backing mage the line jump to Georgia -8 a few days later. Since then the line has dipped back down to Georgia -7.5 at 5Dimes. It also saw this later dip and many other books. That triggered a few Smart Money plays on the Spartans, including at BetOnline (37-23, +10.22 units) and 5Dimes (85-69, +7.71 units). We’re following the Smart Money and looking for some favorable underdog lines like the Michigan State +8.5 at Bodog.

Michigan State +8.5 (Bodog)

Penn State vs Southern Cal (1/1 5P)

Penn State comes into the Rose Bowl as Big Ten Champions in what many people consider a down year for the conference. That doesn’t mean Penn State isn’t one of the top teams in the country, as they dominate on both sides of the ball. The rushing attack is led by sophomore tailback Evan Royster, who rushed for over 1,200 yards on the season. Quarterback Daryll Clark completed over 60% of his passes while throwing to a talented trio of senior wide receivers. Deon Butler, Derrick Williams and Jordan Norwood combined to make 121 receptions. The Nittany Lions defense is also strong, allowing only 12.4 points per game, while giving up an average of 263.9 yards.

As good as Penn State is, Southern Cal is slightly better on the stat sheet. The Trojans rank first nationally in four defensive categories, including scoring defense (7.8 points per game) and total defense (206.1 yards per game). The Trojans utilize a traditional pro-style offense led by quarterback Mark Sanchez, who threw for 30 touchdowns against 10 interceptions. USC uses a trio of running backs to complement Sanchez, highlighted by sophomore Joe McKnight. The Trojans will be without versatile fullback Stanley Havili, and offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian left before The Rose Bowl to take the head coach position at the University of Washington.

Southern Cal opened as double-digit favorites at most books tracked by Sports Insights, including USC -10.5 at Pinnacle. The Trojans are receiving almost two-thirds of the public spread bets at 64%. Despite this backing, the line has moved in the other direction to USC -8 at Pinnacle. There is still some variation in the line across the marketplace, ranging from an 8-point spread to a 10-point spread. Leading up to the game a Steam Move was triggered at Bet Jamaica (125-100, +13.3 units) on the Nittany Lions. We think these two teams are pretty evenly matched, so we think getting either team with 10 points is the way to go. We’ll take Joe Pa and Penn State with the points.

Penn State +10 (Bodog)

Utah vs Alabama (1/2 8:15P)

Utah comes into the Sugar Bowl with the nation’s longest active winning streak at 13 games. They have that designation thanks to Alabama’s loss in the SEC Championship Game, which ended the Crimson Tide’s own 13-game winning streak. The Utes are the first non-BCS conference school to reach two BCS bowls, having won the 2005 Fiesta Bowl against Pittsburgh. That win is part of a seven-game bowl winning streak for Utah. Quarterback Brian Johnson spread the ball around to his receivers while throwing for 24 touchdowns on the season; five receivers caught at least 23 passes and 3 touchdowns. The Utes defense is allowing only 104.8 yards rushing per game.

Alabama came within one quarter of playing in the BCS Championship Game, but they were handed their first loss after giving up two fourth-quarter touchdowns to Florida in the SEC Championship Game. The Crimson Tide are lead by a strong rushing attack, which averages 196.5 yards per game, and an efficient passing attack. That combination lives on ball control, but they also average 31 points per game. Alabama can play against any type of offense, as it has utilized a 3-4 base defense, but also used nickel, dime, and zone blitz packages much of the year. The Tide defense allowed an average of 78.8 rushing yards per game, while giving up a total of 19 touchdowns in 13 games.

It’s no surprise that Alabama opened as double-digit favorites against the Mountain West Champions, and it’s not surprising they are receiving the majority of bets from the public. The Crimson Tide are receiving 77% of the public spread bets. Despite this overwhelming majority of support, the line has moved from an opening at Pinnacle of Alabama -11 to -9. The line has seem quite a bit of fluctuation between those numbers, and the game has received over 15 Betting System triggers from Sports Insights. All except one are on Utah, including Smart Money plays at Bodog (17-8, +7.40 units) and BetOnline (37-23, +10.22) and a Steam Move at Bet Jamaica (125-100, +13.3). We’re not sure if the Utes can finish off another undefeated season against ‘Bama, but we think they can stay within single digits. We’re taking Utah with the points.

Utah +10 (BetPhoenix)

So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NCAA Football Bowls (3).

Games to Watch (25-23-3)
Michigan State +8.5 (Bodog)
Penn State +10 (Bodog)
Utah +10 (BetPhoenix)

It should be another exciting week for NCAA Football. Keep Sports Marketplace Games to Watch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. Also check out our new feature Campus Reports for NCAA Football information you won’t find anywhere else. We’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch.

Enjoy the games!

Editor’s Note: The above post was written by Mike Norris at SportsInsights. Every week SportsInsights speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding giving sports fans unprecedented insight into the NCAA Football point-spread market. Check out SportsInsights at http://SportsInsights.com.

Sports Marketplace – NCAA Bowl Games (2)

Recapping Bowl Games Week 1

This is our first year providing the NCAA Football Marketwatch, and we finished the regular season just below .500. The Bowl Season is off to a good start at 2-0 with a game still pending. Arizona covered the 3-point spread with a 10-point win over BYU to kick off our bowl picks. Southern Miss scored an outright win over Troy in overtime to give us the 2-0 start. We have Florida Atlantic getting six points against Central Michigan on Friday, but they are currently receiving seven points across the marketplace.

If you enjoy the insights this column provides, please be sure to visit SportsInsights.com. We are the leader in sports betting information and statistics.

Overall = 22-22-3 = 50.0% (1 game pending)

NCAA Bowl Games (2)

We are splitting the Bowl Season into three NCAA Marketwatches. The first featured games from the first full week of bowl games. The second is coming from the remaining games in 2008, and the final will feature games after the New Year. The second set of bowl games sees some traditional powerhouses and some up-and-coming teams in action. Some of the interesting match ups include West Virginia-North Carolina, Wisconsin-Florida State, Miami (FL)-California, Oregon-Oklahoma State, and LSU-Georgia Tech. The biggest spread in this set of games sees Missouri as 13-point favorites over Northwestern.

Warning to all new readers of the NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch column: in order to follow our selections, you’ll need ice running through your veins. Be prepared to take up meditation or acupuncture to calm the nerves. The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too go to be true, there is a reason. The underlining theme every week is line value. You’ll consistently need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.

With a light schedule on the final weekend before bowl games, we’re expecting heavy action on the majority of games on the board. Visit SportsInsights.com to view wagering statistics on NCAA games from multiple online sportsbooks. Here is a trio of line value games we are keying on.

NCAA Sports MarketWatch Bowl Games (2) – Games to Watch

Wisconsin vs Florida State (12/27 4:30P)

Wisconsin comes into the Champs Sports Bowl in Orlando making its fifth-consecutive trip to Florida

for bowl season. The Badgers had higher hopes coming into 2008, and they looked to be reaching those expectations when they moved up to ninth in the polls. They then lost four-straight and five of six games in the middle of their season to fall completely out of the rankings. The Badgers finished the season with a three-game win streak to qualify for bowl contention. Wisconsin utilizes a veteran offensive line and a pair of stud tailbacks in P.J. Hill and John Clay to power their offense (the Badgers rank 14th nationally in rushing offense with 212.0 ypg). Junior quarterback Dustin Sherer improved down the stretch after taking over as starter for the last six games of the season, as he threw for 450 yards during the Badgers’ final two games. Wisconsin’s defense has been up-and-down this season, but they still boast a solid unit against the run. They rank 43rd nationally allowing 133.3 yards per game.

Florida State is making its 27th-consecutive bowl appearance, which is now the nation’s longest streak with Michigan failing to qualify. The Seminoles come in having lost three of their last five games behind an offense that struggled. FSU averaged 216 rush yards per game during the first six games, but that average fell to below 150 yards for the final six. Quarterback Chistian Ponder also struggled down the stretch finishing with more interceptions (13) than touchdowns (12), and he was benched in the regular season finale against Florida. The Seminoles defense relies on speed and athleticism along the front seven to get in the backfield and disrupt opposing offenses. Florida State is holding opponents to 126.8 rushing yards per game, but they allowed Florida to rush for 317 yards in their regular season finale.

Florida State opened as a 5.5-point favorite at 5Dimes. Since then, the line has fluctuated between FSU -4.5 and -6. The public is solidly behind the Seminoles, with them receiving 78% of spread bets and 78% of parlay bets. The combination of movement and percentages triggered Smart Money plays at multiple books, all with records of at least .500. Among the books triggering plays for Wisconsin were Bodog (17-7, +8.40 units), BetOnline (35-22, +9.4), and 5Dimes (83-66, +8.86). We’ll follow the sharps and take the power running game of Wisconsin.

Wisconsin +6 (Bodog)

N.C. State vs Rutgers (12/29 3P)

North Carolina State comes into the Papajohns.com Bowl having won four straight, including two against nationally-ranked opponents. The Wolfpack surged behind the strong late-season play of quarterback Russell Wilson, who was named ACC rookie of the year and a first-team conference selection. After winning a deep quarterback battle, Wilson finished the season having thrown for 1,769 yards and 16 touchdowns with only one interception in 252 attempts. He also rushed for 342 yards and four scores. Wilson enjoys throwing deep to wide receiver Owen Spencer and short to tight end

Anthony Hill. NCSU’s defense improved during the four-game winning streak, as they allowed more than 20 points only once during that stretch. The month between the Wolfpack’s season finale and bowl game should be a huge help as they will be able to heal some key injuries.

NCSU may be the ACC’s hottest team heading into Bowl Season, but Rutgers was even hotter coming out of the Big East. The Scarlet Knights won their final six behind a streaking offense led by its passing attack. Quarterback Mike Teel closed his senior season on a high note throwing to the talented trio of wide receivers Kenny Britt, Tiquan Underwood, and Tim Brown. Rutgers running attack utilizes another trio of players, but coach Greg Schiano tends to play the hot hand instead of a rotation. The Scarlet Knights defense has played well all season with the exception of a 44-12 loss against another ACC foe, North Carolina.

Rutgers opened as 6.5-point favorites at Pinnacle, and they have been as heavy as 9.5-point favorites during the time leading up to the game. The public was backing Rutgers earlier in the week, but the percentages have evened out as each team is currently receiving 50% of the public spread bets. The Scarlet Knights are receiving slightly stronger backing in the parlay category with 60% of the public’s bets. Despite the line fluctuation there haven’t been many Betting System plays triggered for either team. In this battle of two surging teams, we like the one receiving a touchdown in the spread.

N.C. State +7

Oregon vs Oklahoma State (12/30 8PM)

Oregon closed the regular season with a huge 65-38 win that knocked rival Oregon State out of a Rose Bowl berth. The Ducks come into the Holiday Bowl with a 9-3 record, and they will be seeking their

second 10-win season in the past seven. Quarterback Jeremiah Masoli took over behind center down the stretch and finished the regular season with 1,487 yards, 12 touchdowns and four interceptions. The strength of the Oregon offense is on the ground with tailbacks Jeremiah Johnson (1,082 yards, 12 TD) and LeGarrette Blount (928 yards, 16 TD) leading the nation’s fourth-ranked rushing attack. The Ducks finished with an average of 41.9 points per game, which was seventh in the nation. The Ducks’ main weakness is its passing defense, which ranked 108th in the nation.

Oklahoma State is seeking to tie a school record with 10 wins on the season, as head coach Mike Gundy returns to a special place from his past. In the Cowboys’ only other Holiday Bowl appearance, Gundy completied 20 of 24 passes for 315 yards and two touchdowns in OSU’s 62-14 victory over Wyoming in 1988. The Cowboys come into the bowl ranked seventh nationally in total yards, seventh in rushing offense, and eighth in scoring offense. The trio of quarterback Zac Robinson, tailback Kendall Hunter, and wide receiver Dez Bryant has made the Cowboys’ spread offense very dangerous. OSU had trouble putting pressure on opposing quarterbacks (13 sacks on the season), which is one reason they rank 110th nationally against the pass.

The Holiday Bowl should be an offensive shootout, and defense will probably decide the victor. Both teams rely on rushing attacks, so the key could be stopping the run. Oklahoma State opened as a 3.5-point favorite at 5Dimes, and the line saw some movement to OSU -4 early. Since then, we have seen movement in the opposite direction, despite the Cowboys receiving 60% of spread bets and 73% of parlay bets. This caused a few Smart Money plays to be triggered, including at 5Dimes (83-66, +8.86) and The Pig (127-111, +3.30). We’ll follow the sharps and take the Ducks getting a field goal.

Oregon +3

So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NCAA Football Week 15.

Games to Watch (22-22-3) (1 game pending)
Wisconsin +6 (Bodog)
N.C. State +7
Oregon +3
Games to Watch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. Also check out our new feature Campus Reports for NCAA Football information you won’t find anywhere else. We’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch.

Enjoy the games!

Editor’s Note: The above post was written by Mike Norris at SportsInsights. Every week SportsInsights speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding giving sports fans unprecedented insight into the NCAA Football point-spread market. Check out SportsInsights at http://SportsInsights.com.

Welcome to this week’s edition of the Sports MarketWatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports MarketWatch!

Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Dan takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.

Sports MarketWatch – NFL Week 17

Recapping Last Week

Christmas started early in NFL Week 15 and the party continued right on through to NFL Week 16. All sportsbooks reported sizeable profits in Week 16 with most sportsbooks retaining anywhere between 3%-6%of their handle. The last three weeks of the NFL season always have their share of surprises and upsets. This year has been no different. Pretty much every single big game went the way of the sportsbooks. Tennessee winning big at home against Pittsburgh, the New York Jets losing to lowly Seattle and Oakland (a 7pt underdog) winning by 11pts over Houston were all huge games for the sportsbooks.

SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the Public got hammered, going 1-7, making the Public 52-73 = 41.6% for the season. SportsInsights.com Games to Watch analysis continued its positive momentum, going 2-1, making it 26-21-2 = 55.3% for the season. Not bad for a free weekly column; imagine the money you’d have won by using our Premium Pro membership! If you have enjoyed the insights this column provides, please be sure to visit SportsInsights.com and sign up for a Premium Pro Membership. Your bankroll will thank you! Happy holidays!

2005 Games to Watch: 33-25 = 56.9%
2006 Games to Watch: 31-18 = 63.3%
2007 Games to Watch: 25-19 = 56.8%
2008 Games to Watch: 26-21 = 55.3%

NFL WEEK 17
This time of year is tough for the oddsmakers, as teams that can’t improve their playoff position look to sit starters. In addition, there are some horrible and meaningless match-ups. We anticipate that Green Bay, Pittsburgh, and New England will be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Visit SportsInsights.com to view live wagering statistics from seven online sportsbooks.

NFL Week 17 Sports MarketWatch – Games to Watch (26-21 = 55.3%)

Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets

Time to “buy low and sell high.” A few weeks ago, some people were picking the Jets to be the AFC representative in the Superbowl. Since the Jets’ big win at Tennessee five games ago, the Jets have limped to a 1-3 record. Meanwhile, the Miami Dolphins have put together a four-game winning streak and are tied with New England atop the AFC East, one game ahead of the Jets. The Jets looked bad last week against the lowly Seahawks while the Dolphins scored 38 points in defeating KC. Time to buy the Jets at a recent “low” and sell the Dolphins at a “peak.”

The “sharps” also feel that there is good value on the New York Jets. The line opened at CRIS at Jets -2.5. The majority of bets — especially teasers and parlays — are on Miami, but the line has ticked up to the “key three number.” There are still some 2.5’s available that we would grab ASAP.

Many of the Dolphins’ wins this year have been by just a few points. They beat the teams they should — but don’t seem to be as good as their 10-5 record. On the other hand, the Jets have been underperforming lately. Overall, we believe that the Jets are a better team, so we like giving less than a FG at home.

New York Jets -2.5 -110 BetUS

More picks are coming soon!

Editor’s Note: The above was written by Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.Every week SportsInsights speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding giving sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL Football point-spread market. Check out SportsInsights at http://SportsInsights.com.

Welcome to this week’s edition  of the Sports MarketWatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports MarketWatch!

Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Dan takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.

Sports MarketWatch – NFL Week 16

Recapping Last Week

Christmas came early for the sportsbooks in NFL Week 15.  All sportsbooks reported a profitable Sunday retaining anywhere between 3%-6%of their handle.  Pretty much every single big game except New England vs. Oakland went the way of the sportsbooks.  Houston stunning Tennessee and Cincy pounding Washington were the huge 1pm games for the sportsbooks.

SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the Public got hammered, going 1-6, making the Public 51-66 = 43.5% for the season.  SportsInsights.com Games to Watch analysis continued its positive momentum, going 2-0-1,making it 24-20-2 = 54.5% for the season.  Let’s see what the Sports Marketplace has in store for us this week — as we hope to continue our forward progress.  Happy holidays!

View Last Week’s Column:
http://www.sportsinsights.com/sportsmarketwatch/sportsmarketwatch.aspx

NFL WEEK 16
We anticipate that Pittsburgh, Philly, New Orleans and Houston will be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week.  Visit SportsInsights.com to view live wagering statistics from seven online sportsbooks.

NFL Week 16 Sports MarketWatch – Games to Watch (24-20 = 54.5%)

Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs

The Miami Dolphins stay relatively close to the elite NFL teams and beat the teams they “should.”  What a turnaround from a year ago!  The Dolphins continue to surprise most people and win.  Or is it a surprise??!  This week, a big 67% of all bets (including teasers and parlays) are taking the Dolphins over the KC Chiefs.  It looks like the Public is jumping on the Dolphins’ bandwagon.  In addition, the “betting Public” typically overvalues the motivational value of teams positioning themselves for the playoffs.

Although the Dolphins have been winning, a quick scan shows that three of their more recent wins have been by a total of 11 points.  One of our offshore contacts, a sportsbook risk manager, told us that some “early big money” on the Chiefs drove the line down.  Even with an overwhelming number of bets landing on the Dolphins, the line has moved from KC +4 down to KC +3.5.  That is a huge move off of the “key 4″ number.  SportsInsights’ (SIs) analytical tools confirm the existence of “Smart Money” moving the line in the direction opposite of the Public’s betting.  Let’s take the side of “Smart money” and “Bet Against the Public” on the home dog.

Years ago, SIs published the results of academic research over a long 20-year period that showed a bias for home underdogs to cover the spread — late in the NFL season — and into the playoffs.  SportsInsights’ research shows that this bias continues to work.  You can still grab KC +4 at SIA.  Most books have moved down to +3.5 so grab the +4 soon.

Kansas City Chiefs +4 SIA

New York Jets vs Seattle Seahawks

A few weeks ago, the Jets were touted as one of the best of the AFC.  That “aura or shine” is still on the Jets as they are tied for first place in the AFC East at 9-5.  The Jets play the lowly 3-11 Seattle Seahawks this game, in what looks like an “easy” game for a potential playoff-bound team.  Or is it such an easy pick?  The “Big Money” doesn’t think so.

Early “Sharp money” pushed the line towards the Seahawks, even though a big 70% of bets are landing on the visiting favorite Jets.  The Jets opened as 5.5 point favorites at CRIS but the line has moved down to 4 at most books.  The “Smart money” has seen a Jets team struggle at 3-2 over their last five games as they drive towards the playoffs.  This is NOT the performance you would expect to see from an elite NFL team.  We’ll “Bet Against the Public” and join the “Big Money.”  Bodog and SIA still have Seattle +4.5.

Seattle Seahawks +4.5  SIA

Houston Texans vs Oakland Raiders

The Houston Texans have been playing great football, putting together a four-game winning streak, capped by its huge win against Tennessee last week.  The “hot money” is all over Houston as they take slim playoff aspirations to Oakland against the lowly 3-11 Raiders.

We like the Raiders at home, plus the touchdown for several reasons.

• The Raiders are a big home dog, late in the season.
• Any playoff hopes that Houston may have are overvalued by the Public.
• The Public loves Houston in this game, to the tune of almost 90%.  Fade the Public.
• CRIS opened at Oakland +7.5 but the current line everywhere is +7, even with most bets on Houston.  Go with “Smart money.”
• Oakland has lost three games in a row, the last two by a combined 83-33.  Ouch.  Buy low!
• Houston has reeled off four wins in a row.  Sell high!

You should be able to grab Oakland +7 at low vig right now.  The line may hop back up to +7.5 if you wait closer to game-time as the Public continues to pound Houston.

Oakland Raiders +7

So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch:

Games to Watch (24-20 = 54.5%)
Kansas City Chiefs +4 SIA
Seattle Seahawks +4.5 SIA
Oakland Raiders +7

It should be another exciting NFL Weekend.  Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.  I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports MarketWatch.

Enjoy the games!

Editor’s Note: The above was written by Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.Every week SportsInsights speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding giving sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL Football point-spread market. Check out SportsInsights at http://SportsInsights.com.