Sports MarketWatch – NFL Week 8

Recapping Last Week

NFL Week 7 was good to the sportsbooks. All sportsbooks reported a big Sunday, with most retaining between 2%-4% of their handle. Dallas getting mauled by St. Louis, one of the NFL’s worst teams, (and yes our Games to Watch feature was on the losing end) broke up a lot of parlays and teasers. Carolina winning big over New Orleans — and Green Bay embarrassing Indy, were huge games for the books. Until this Sunday, the pattern had been if the sportsbooks won the 1pm’s and 4pm’s, they lost the late game. This didn’t hold true last Sunday. The Public loaded up on Tampa Bay in the late game, looking to bet their way out of a deep hole. Tampa Bay failed to cover plus the game went under…an excellent result for the sportsbooks.

SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the Public continued its losing ways, going 3-7, making the Public 24-34 = 41.4% for the season. SportsInsights.com Games to Watch analysis continues its positive momentum, posting a 2-1 record, making it 12-8-1 = 60.0% for the season.

View Last Week’s Column:
http://www.sportsinsights.com/sportsmarketwatch/sportsmarketwatch.aspx

NFL WEEK 7
We anticipate the Baltimore, Buffalo, New England, and Washington to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Visit SportsInsights.com to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks.

NFL Week 7 Sports MarketWatch – Games to Watch (12-8 = 60.0%)

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins

One of our offshore contacts had this game circled early in the week. Early Sharp money on Miami pushed the line from Miami +2 down to Miami +1 — even with the Public all over first-place Buffalo. With almost 85% of all bets coming in on Buffalo, you would think someone had Monday’s sports page already!

In addition to “Betting Against the Public” and taking the same side as “Sharps” — we like this game for a variety of other reasons:

Miami is a home dog — and is definitely a “live dog” in a game that is expected to be close.

This is a game between two divisional rivals.

We’ll sell Buffalo at a “high” after last week’s convincing 23-14 win over a solid San Diego squad.

We’ll buy Miami at a “low” after a 2 touchdown loss to Baltimore.

Miami Dolphins +1.5 (SIA)

St. Louis Rams vs New England

The Public is jumping on the Patriot bandwagon again — after their impressive performance on Monday Night Football (MNF) against Denver. More than 3 out of every 4 bets are coming in on the Patriots. The line opened at NE -7 and -7.5 — but the steady pounding of bets on the Pats has started to make the line rise.

We’ll “Bet Against the Public” and sell the Pats at a recent high after their big MNF win. The Rams should have some renewed confidence after their win over Dallas last week. The line for this game is rising, so shop around for the best line you can get. Currently, St. Louis +7.5 at “plus vig” is widely available with some +9’s around but at “expensive negative vig.”

St. Louis Rams +7.5

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans

This is a classic “new kid in town” versus the “old gunslinger” match-up. Tennessee brings the league’s only undefeated record into this game: a sparkling 6-0 record. Indy has been struggling and limps in at 3-3. The Colts have been showing signs of their championship form, but they lost again last week. The Public is leaning to the Titans, with about 60% of the bets taking Tennessee.

The line opened at Tennessee -3.5 but Public money has moved the line to the key number of Tenn -4. We like this extra value in a key divisional game. How often do you get a team like the Colts plus more than a field goal? We’ll take the points on the “old gunslinger” and buy an underperforming Indy team that suffered a big loss last week versus Green Bay.

Indianapolis Colts +4

So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch:

Games to Watch (12-8 = 60.0%)

Miami Dolphins +1.5 (SIA)
St. Louis Rams +7.5
Indianapolis Colts +4

It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports MarketWatch.

Enjoy the games!

Sports Marketplace – NCAA Week 9

Recapping Week 8

This is our first year providing the NCAA Football Marketwatch, and our bad luck has continued as we’ve reached the mid-point of the season. We suffered our second 0-3 week of the season last week. We took UConn -1 on Friday morning, and the Huskies lost 12-10. Hopefully readers were lucky enough to get UConn +2.5, which is where the game closed, and pick up the win we missed. Clemson couldn’t hold a 4th quarter lead against Georgia Tech, and a late drive stalled due to penalties as the Tigers lost by 4. Duke had a small halftime lead, but Miami exploded with 35 points in the second half for the huge win.

If you enjoy the insights this column provides, please be sure to visit SportsInsights.com and sign up for a Free 7-Day membership. We are the leader in sports betting information and statistics.

Overall = 9-14-1 = 39.1%

NCAA WEEK 9

No. 1 Texas continues their brutal schedule, as they face a third straight top-15 opponent with a fourth looming next week. The Longhorns host No. 6 Oklahoma State in Austin. Also in the Big 12, No. 8 Texas Tech gets a tough test in their warm up for next week’s game against the Longhorns, as they travel to No. 23 Kansas. A second top-10 face-off occurs in the Big Ten, with No. 3 Penn State travelling to the Horseshoe to take on No. 9 Ohio State. The Nittany Lions will look to remain undefeated and in the National Championship picture, while the Buckeyes hope to jump back into the running. In the SEC, No. 7 Georgia takes the trip down to the bayou to face No. 13 LSU. Both teams are still in contention for the SEC Championship game.

Warning to all new readers of the NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch column: in order to follow our selections, you’ll need ice running through your veins. Be prepared to take up meditation or acupuncture to calm the nerves. The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too go to be true, there is a reason. The underlining theme every week is line value. You’ll consistently need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.

We’re expecting heavy action on the top-25 match ups. Other games that should draw lots of action include No. 2 Alabama versus Tennessee, No. 5 USC versus Arizona, and Michigan State versus Michigan. Visit SportsInsights.com to view wagering statistics on NCAA games from multiple online sportsbooks. Here is a trio of line value games we are keying on.

NCAA Sports MarketWatch Week 9 – Games to Watch

Oklahoma State vs Texas (10/25 3:30P)

Oklahoma State’s best start since 1945 has moved the Cowboys up to No. 7 in the polls after starting the season unranked. They are the fourth-highest scoring team in the nation, averaging 46.4 points per game. Their rushing attack is gaining over 280 yards per game, but will have to face a Texas defense only allowing 48.1 rushing yards per contest. The team’s top three rushers all average over 6 ypc, and starter Kendall Hunter needs only 45 yards to break the 1,000 mark for the season. Quarterback Zac Robinson has played well with 14 touchdowns to only 4 interceptions and completing 70% of his passes. The Cowboys have only played in one close game this season, and that was the 28-23 upset win over then-No. 3 Missouri.

Texas gets its third straight ranked Big 12 opponent after handling Oklahoma and Missouri. The Longhorns are led by Heisman candidate Colt McCoy, who leads the nation with an 81.2% completion percentage. McCoy has thrown for 1894 yards with 19 touchdowns and 3 picks, and he also has 371 yards (a team high) and 6 TD on the ground. Senior WR Jordan Shipley has been McCoy’s favorite scoring target with 9 TD grabs. The Texas defense has been bend-but-don’t-break when it comes to the passing game. They are giving up 275 yards per game through the air, which is ninth worst in the FBS.

Both teams come in undefeated, and both are also undefeated against the spread. One will fall this weekend, and the public is slightly favoring Texas in spread bets at 57%. Parlay bets are more strongly behind the Longhorns at 66%. At Pinnacle the line opened at Texas -12.5 and has fluctuated between -12 and -13. The movement triggered a Smart Money play on the Cowboys at Bodog, which has a 17-7 record for NCAA football. The stats are evenly matched between these teams, so we’ll follow the Smart Money and take the Cowboys with the points.

Oklahoma State +12.5 (ThePig)

Wake Forest vs Miami (FL) (10/25 12P)

Wake Forest is coming of a disappointing 26-0 loss at Maryland that dropped them out of the top 25 rankings. Junior quarterback Riley Skinner has been slumping of late with only two touchdown passes and four interceptions in his last four games. He only completed 46.7% of his passes against Maryland. Part of the problem for the Demon Deacons is the lack of a consistent running game to take pressure off Skinner. Sophomore Josh Adams is the team’s leading rusher and has only gained 246 yards while averaging 3.1 ypc. The Deac’s defense, which starts eight seniors and three juniors, was allowing only 15 points per game until last week’s debacle.

Miami put up 35 points in the second half to overcome a 10-point deficit in last week’s win at Duke. The Hurricanes made a quarterback switch during the second quarter, and the move sparked the offense. Freshman Jacory Harris ended the game with five total touchdowns, with four coming through the air. Harris won’t make the start this week, but he will see playing time. If starter Robert Marve struggles, watch for Harris to get the majority of the snaps. The win was Miami’s first inside the competitive ACC this season, and gives them a glimmer of hope in the conference standings. The Canes defense doesn’t give up a lot of yardage, only 287 yards per game, but they have a tendency to allow big plays.

Both teams struggle defensively in the red zone, with Miami ranking last in the ACC and Wake next-to-last. This game could come down to red zone opportunities and conversions. The Deacons actually average more yards per game on offense than the Canes, but Miami is putting up 32.6 points per game compared to 18.7 for Wake Forest. Miami opened as 2.5 point favorites at Pinnacle, and the line has returned there after moving to Miami -3 during the middle of the week. The Canes are receiving 63% of the public’s spread and parlay bets. The return of the line to Miami -2.5 and the betting percentage is an indication of Smart Money. We’re going to follow that and buy low and a good Wake Forest team.

Wake Forest +2.5

Rutgers vs Pittsburgh (10/25 3:30PM)

Rutgers has been one of the most disappointing teams in the nation this season, but they are coming off a big win over UConn. In that game the Scarlet Knight defense held FBS leading rusher Donald Brown to a season-low 107 yards. The Rutgers offense isn’t a juggernaut, but they do put up a respectable 314.7 yards per game. Unfortunately they are only averaging 16.7 points per game, while the defense allows 19.7 points. Last week quarterback Mike Teel moved up to second on the school’s all-time passing yards list. Junior WR Kenny Britt had nine catches and 107 receiving yards against UConn, which was his third 100-yard game this season.

Pittsburgh jumped up to a 17th ranking after their best offensive display in two years. The Panthers compiled 499 yards and 42 points last week against Navy. Pittsburgh features the Big East’s second-leading rusher in LeSean McCoy, who has 689 yards and 10 touchdowns. Quarterback Bill Stull has been steady behind center, while completing 58.5% of his passes with four touchdowns and five interceptions. The Panthers defense has held opponents to 287 yards per game and only 156.5 yards through the air. Pittsburgh is looking for it’s sixth straight win, which it hasn’t done since 1983.

Pittsburgh opened as 10-point favorites at Pinnacle following last week’s strong performance. The public is backing the Panthers with 67% of spread bets and a whopping 89% of parlay bets, but the line dropped as low as Pittsburgh -8 before climbing back to -10. This is an indication of some Smart Money behind the Scarlet Knights. The movement also triggered a Steam Move on Rutgers by Bet Jamaica (90-67.) Pittsburgh is also 0-3 at home against the spread this season. We’ll follow that Steam and back Rutgers with the points.

Rutgers +10

So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NCAA Football Week 9.

Games to Watch (9-14-1)
Oklahoma State +12.5 (ThePig)
Wake Forest +2.5
Rutgers +10

It should be another exciting week for NCAA Football. Keep Sports Marketplace Games to Watch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. Also check out our new feature Campus Reports for NCAA Football information you won’t find anywhere else. We’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch.

Enjoy the games!

Editor’s Note: The above post was written by Mike Norris at SportsInsights. Every week SportsInsights speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding giving sports fans unprecedented insight into the NCAA Football point-spread market. Check out SportsInsights at http://SportsInsights.com.

Sports MarketWatch – NFL Week 7

Recapping Last Week

NFL Week 6 was another “grind-it-out” Sunday for the sportsbook industry. Most sportsbooks again reported mixed results for the weekend, with most gaining or losing 1% to 2% of their handle.

SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the Public continued its losing ways, going 3-4, making the Public 21-27 for the season. SportsInsights.com Games to Watch analysis swept the board, going 3-0, making it 10-7-1 = 58.9% for the season. (*There was a grading error in last week’s article; Tampa Bay has been changed from a Win to a Push.)

View Last Week’s Column:
http://www.sportsinsights.com/sportsmarketwatch/sportsmarketwatch.aspx

NFL WEEK 7
We anticipate the New York Jets, Indy, and Chicago to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Visit SportsInsights.com to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks.

NFL Week 7 Sports MarketWatch – Games to Watch (10-7 = 58.8%)

407 San Diego Chargers versus 408 Buffalo Bills

JC, one of our offshore contacts circled this game early. Very early sharp money moved the line from San Diego being a slight favorite to Buffalo being favored. Cris opened at SD -2, but is currently at Buffalo -1. The line moved fairly significantly, even though about two-thirds of the bets are landing on San Diego.

This kind of market action is a good indication that early, large money came in on Buffalo, overwhelming the Public’s bets. Our readers know that we like to go with the “big, smart money.” You can still get Buffalo +0 (moneyline) for a decent price.

Buffalo Bills +0 SIA

413 Dallas Cowboys versus 414 St. Louis Rams

In this match-up, we like Dallas minus the points. We don’t often like laying points and taking a favorite — but in this case — we’re selling St Louis’s big win over Washington. In addition, we’re buying Dallas at a bargain because of a loss to Arizona last week and the injury to QB Tony Romo. Dallas is well-balanced team with or without Tony Romo in the lineup. Only laying a TD against St Louis is like betting with tomorrow’s scores!

Let’s buy (Dallas) low and sell (St. Louis) high. Dallas is one of the league’s elite teams, while St. Louis is currently going through tough times. The Rams have been outscored 62-164 this season. Go with America’s team this week.

Dallas Cowboys -6.5 WSEX

417 New Orleans Saints versus 418 Carolina Panthers

Including teasers and parlays, about 70% of all bets are on the surging Saints. The Saints blew out Oakland last week, 34-3. The Saints’ offense has been explosive this year, leading the league in passing yards/game (324.7 yards/game) and total yards/game (412.2 yards/game). Reggie Bush has had an inconsistent season — but has been explosive on punt returns and receiving. The Saints have outscored their opponents 172-133 but are just 3-3.

Carolina, on the other hand, is less explosive — and has outscored their opponents by a more pedestrian 117-97. However, they have a better and more consistent defense that has led them to a 4-2 record. We’re looking for Carolina to bounce back after getting man-handled by Tampa Bay in the previous week. Again, we are buying (Carolina) low and selling (NO) high — especially after New Orleans’ offense has caught the Public’s attention.

Carolina Panthers -3

So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch:

Games to Watch (10-7 = 58.8%)
Buffalo Bills +0 SIA
Dallas Cowboys -6.5 WSEX
Carolina Panthers -3

It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports MarketWatch.

Enjoy the games!

Editor’s Note: The above was written by Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights. Every week SportsInsights speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding giving sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL Football point-spread market. Check out SportsInsights at http://SportsInsights.com.

Sports Marketplace – NCAA Week 8

Recapping Week 7

This is our first year providing the NCAA Football Marketwatch, and we weren’t able to climb out from below .500 with last week’s 1-1-1 showing. East Carolina got steamrolled by Virginia to give us an ugly loss. Georgia scored 6 points in the fourth quarter to give us a push against Tennessee. Florida International gave us our lone win as they easily covered by defeating Middle Tennessee State by 10.

If you enjoy the insights this column provides, please be sure to visit SportsInsights.com and sign up for a Free 7-Day membership. We are the leader in sports betting information and statistics.

Overall = 9-11-1 = 45%

NCAA WEEK 8

Newly minted No. 1 Texas doesn’t get much of a break as they play host to No. 11 Missouri. Both teams are coming off top-25 matchups from last week with different outcomes. The Longhorns upset then No. 1 Oklahoma to leap frog No. 2 Alabama for this week’s top ranking. The Tigers are coming off a mild upset loss at the hands of then No. 17 Oklahoma State. Oklahoma also gets another tough test as they take on No. 16 Kansas in Norman. There are a couple of other top-25 match ups taking place outside of the Big 12. The first comes from the SEC as No. 22 Vanderbilt travels to Athens to face No. 10 Georgia. In the Big Ten No. 20 Michigan State hosts No. 12 Ohio State.

Warning to all new readers of the NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch column: in order to follow our selections, you’ll need ice running through your veins. Be prepared to take up meditation or acupuncture to calm the nerves. The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too go to be true, there is a reason. The underlining theme every week is line value. You’ll consistently need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.

We’re expecting heavy action on the top-25 match ups. Other games that should draw lots of action include No. 18 North Carolina at Virginia, No. 13 LSU at South Carolina, and No. 17 Virginia Tech at Boston College. Visit SportsInsights.com to view wagering statistics on NCAA games from multiple online sportsbooks. Here is a trio of line value games we are keying on.

NCAA Sports MarketWatch Week 8 – Games to Watch

Connecticut vs Rutgers (10/18 12P)

Connecticut had an extra week off after their last game, a tough 38-12 loss at No. 18 North Carolina. The Huskies went into that game ranked No. 24 and undefeated, and they out-gained the Tar Heels in the loss. Turnovers and special teams did them in. UConn has one of the top tailbacks in the country in Junior Donald Brown, whom averages over 175 yards rushing per game. Sophomore QB Zach Frazer now has a start under his belt after original starter Tyler Lorenzen broke his foot three weeks ago. Head Coach Randy Edsall stressed special teams and cutting down on opponent’s big plays during the bye week.

Rutgers has no wins against College Football Bowl Subdivision teams so far this season, with their lone win coming against Morgan State. They were beat handily in their first two games of the season by teams that have been ranked in the top-25 (Fresno State and North Carolina.) The Scarlet Knights other three losses were by an average of 4 points. Freshman RB Jourdan Broooks has had a solid start to his collegiate career (4.6 ypc, 5 TDs), but he isn’t the stud back that Rutgers needs right now. Quarterback Mike Teel hasn’t shown much consistency or playmaking ability as he’s thrown seven interceptions against only 3 touchdowns.

The Scarlet Knights opened as one-point favorites at Pinnacle, but the line quickly moved to a pick. Since then the line has moved UConn to -1 favorites on the road. The movement created a positive Steam Move in favor of the Huskies. We’re going to follow the steam, and the Huskies coming off a bye week.

Connecticut -1

Georgia Tech vs Clemson (10/18 12P)

Georgia Tech has opened up the Paul Johnson era better than expected by going 5-1 and looking like a contender in the ACC. The Yellow Jackets only loss came on the road at No. 17 Virginia Tech by a field goal. The strength of the team is its defense, which is allowing an average of under 11 points per game. Georgia Tech is coming off a tough 10-7 win over Gardner-Webb in which they needed a blocked field goal late to seal the win. The Ramblin’ Wreck offense is based on the ground, as their quarterbacks have attempted only 71 passes on the season. Quarterbacks Jaybo Shaw and Josh Nesbitt are both expected to be ready to play after missing last week’s win.

Clemson’s season just hasn’t gone as expected, which led to coach Tommy Bowden’s resignation earlier this week. Dabo Swinney takes over for the rest of the season, and will try to make the best out of a disappointing situation. After a season-opening blowout at the hands of Alabama, the Tigers defense has been very solid while giving up less than 12 points per game. They’ve lost their previous two games by a total of 8 points to Maryland and Wake Forest. Tailback C.J. Spiller is out with a hamstring pull; meaning James Davis will get the bulk of the carries usually split by the Thunder and Lightning duo. Senior QB Cullen Harper is dealing with a shoulder injury, which means highly-touted freshman Willy Korn could get the start.

Clemson opened as two-point favorites at Pinnacle, but after Bowden’s resignation Georgia Tech became the favorite. The Yellow Jackets are currently 2.5 point favorites while receiving 66% of the public bets. The movement triggered Smart Money plays on Clemson from books with positive results. At Sports Insights we like to follow the Smart Money, and we like to buy on bad news. Bad news doesn’t come much worse than your coach resigning mid-season, so we’ll take Clemson and the points in Death Valley.

Clemson +2.5

Miami (FL) vs Duke (10/18 3:30PM)

Miami looks like they may need another year before returning to the top of the ACC, but there are signs of improvement. The Hurricanes are seeking their first conference win, and this may be their best chance until their final regular season game at North Carolina State. This will be the Hurricanes first conference road game. The Canes defense gives up chunks of yardage and is allowing over 23 points per game. The offense has become more turnover prone over the last 3 games in which they’ve turned it over 8 times.

Not many people were expecting Duke to start out the season this well. The Blue Devils come in with a winning record under first-year coach David Cutcliffe. They’re coming off a bye week following a 27-0 loss at the hands of Georgia Tech in which they allowed over 450 yards of total offense. Junior quarterback Thaddeus Lewis has given the Blue Devils a steady presence on offense, and senior wide receiver Eron Riley has given Lewis a big target to throw to. Duke’s defense has forced 12 turnovers through five games in 2008.

Miami opened as 5.5 point favorites at Pinnacle, and the Hurricanes are receiving 72% of the public’s bets. The line has moved in the opposite direction to Miami -3, which is a strong indication of Smart Money on Duke. This game has seen a very high number of triggered plays, from both Smart Money and Steam Moves, all on Duke. The public is following the preconceived notions of Miami as a powerhouse and Duke as a doormat. We’ll take the home dog and follow the Smart Money.

Duke +3

So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NCAA Football Week 8.

Games to Watch (9-11-1)
Connecticut -1
Clemson +2.5
Duke +3

It should be another exciting week for NCAA Football. Keep Sports Marketplace Games to Watch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. Also check out our new feature Campus Reports for NCAA Football information you won’t find anywhere else. We’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch.

Enjoy the games!

Editor’s Note: The above post was written by Mike Norris at SportsInsights. Every week SportsInsights speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding giving sports fans unprecedented insight into the NCAA Football point-spread market. Check out SportsInsights at http://SportsInsights.com.

Sports MarketWatch – NFL Week 6

Recapping Last Week

NFL Week 5 was a “grind-it-Sunday” for the sportsbook industry. “At the end of the day, we had little to show for a lot of hard work,” reported JC, head lineman at Skybook. Most sportsbooks reported flat earnings for Sunday, some retaining 1%-2% and some losing 1%-2% of their handle. For the second straight week, teams the sportsbooks “needed big” — fell apart in the 4th quarter. Two weeks ago, it was Detroit and Oakland imploding. Last week it was Houston’s epic 4th quarter collapse in which they gave up 21 points in what seems like 1 minute. Let’s just say sometimes you eat the bull and sometimes the bull eats you.

SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the Public went a lackluster 4-4, making the Public 18-23 for the season. SportsInsights.com Games to Watch analysis stumbled again, going 1-2, making it 8-7 = 53.3% for the season… We were 1 quarter from going 2-1. We’ll hope the pigskin bounces our way this week. But we let’s put it behind us and focus on the week at hand.

View Last Week’s Column:
http://www.sportsinsights.com/sportsmarketwatch/sportsmarketwatch.aspx

NFL WEEK 6
We anticipate Chicago, Carolina, and Dallas to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Visit SportsInsights.com to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks.

NFL Week 6 Sports MarketWatch – Games to Watch (8-7 = 53.3%)

209 Carolina Panthers versus 210 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Public is overwhelmingly on the Carolina Panthers — with about 75% of all bets are landing on the Panthers. We believe the true line should be Tampa Bay -3, but Carolina’s big 34-0 win last week has caused the sportsbooks to open at TB -1.5. We like the fact the Public is overwhelmingly on Carolina and the fact that we will only lay 1 point for a playoff caliber squad like Tampa Bay, playing at home.

We also like this game because it is a tough divisional game, with victor taking first place in the NFC South. TB took a tough loss last week while Carolina had a blowout win. Let’s “buy low, and sell high” and grab the home value.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1

213 Chicago Bears versus 214 Atlanta Falcons

The Public is all over the Bears in this match-up. And, why not? This is the vaunted Chicago Bear franchise, that has seen flashes of its former greatness in recent years (13-3 in 2006; and among the league leaders in point differential this season at +41 net points [128 PF - 87 PA]). “Da Bears” are playing the Atlanta Falcons, perennial league doormats (4-12 last season).

This kind of match-up seems “too easy” and this is the type of game where we can often find value. We’ll “bet against the public” and make a play On Atlanta. The overwhelming Public bets on Chicago have pushed this line to the key number of 3, creating some nice value. We’re buying a much-improved Atlanta squad at +3, at home. Take the “live home dog” to make some noise.

Atlanta Falcons +3

217 St. Louis Rams versus 218 Washington Redskins

Take your Tums! Our readers know that we like to take the most painful-looking game on the board. These games, where nobody in their right minds would want to take the “ugly duckling” — often have solid contrarian value. When it comes to sports investing, we’ll let everybody else admire “Cinderella” while we take a good value.

In addition, our sports betting contacts circled this game because early “Sharp” action pushed the line back a huge 1 to 1.5 points through the key number of 14 from St. Louis +15 (at Cris) down to +13.5. This occurred even though a huge 75% of bets are on the favored Redskins. We like the fact that “big, smart money” is on the big underdog Rams.

We’ll Sell on Washington’s big win over Dallas. We also get to buy the value on a beaten-down St. Louis Ram team. Based on the constant pounding of bets on Washington, you might be able to get St. Louis + 2 TDs.

St. Louis Rams +13.5

So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch:

Games to Watch (8-7 = 53.3%)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1
Atlanta Falcons +3
St. Louis Rams +13.5

It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports MarketWatch.

Enjoy the games!

Editor’s Note: The above was written by Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights. Every week SportsInsights speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding giving sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL Football point-spread market. Check out SportsInsights at http://SportsInsights.com.